***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.11.2015.-22.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 10.9 9.3 8.4 -0.4 44.7 47.8 7.8 10.0 12.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 10.1 8.8 8.5 -0.3 46.5 49.0 7.2 9.2 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 7.5 9.6 8.6 -0.3 45.8 48.7 7.8 10.1 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 1.6 3.7 6.2 -0.4 45.1 48.5 2.0 4.4 6.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 7.4 9.5 6.8 -0.3 46.4 49.2 7.7 10.0 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.4 8.9 6.0 -0.3 45.9 48.5 7.2 9.4 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 10.0 8.6 8.3 -0.3 45.8 48.3 7.0 9.1 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 3.3 2.6 6.5 0.0 50.5 52.1 0.7 2.6 4.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 11.7 10.3 7.7 -0.2 47.6 50.0 8.2 10.6 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 10.9 9.8 7.1 0.0 49.6 51.2 7.5 9.8 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 7.4 9.8 6.8 -0.2 47.1 49.6 7.8 10.3 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 11.1 9.8 6.7 -0.2 47.4 49.9 7.8 10.1 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 7.5 9.5 6.3 -0.4 44.8 47.8 7.9 10.2 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 11.8 10.5 8.3 -0.1 48.9 50.6 8.1 10.7 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 9.3 8.0 6.3 -0.4 44.9 48.5 6.6 8.5 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 11.8 10.1 6.4 -0.4 45.2 48.2 8.5 10.8 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 9.4 8.3 8.3 -0.2 46.8 49.0 6.7 8.6 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 6.2 8.7 7.1 0.0 50.4 51.7 6.5 8.7 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 10.3 9.1 8.7 -0.2 46.9 49.4 7.2 9.4 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 3.9 7.0 5.6 0.2 53.1 53.7 4.3 6.6 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 11.3 9.8 8.1 -0.3 46.1 49.0 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 10.0 8.8 8.5 -0.2 47.1 49.4 7.0 9.1 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 10.4 9.2 8.9 -0.2 47.5 49.9 7.3 9.5 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 8.0 10.6 8.1 -0.1 48.5 50.4 8.4 10.8 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 10.2 8.9 6.9 -0.3 46.0 48.8 7.3 9.4 11.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 10.4 8.9 6.2 -0.4 44.2 47.5 7.6 9.6 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 11.0 9.6 7.7 -0.4 45.6 48.1 8.0 10.2 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 6.7 8.5 6.3 -0.4 44.6 48.2 7.0 9.2 11.3 29 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 3.7 6.6 6.6 0.1 51.3 52.3 4.1 6.5 8.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 10.1 8.7 8.6 -0.3 45.8 48.6 7.2 9.2 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------