***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.11.2015.-29.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 10.4 10.1 8.0 1.3 66.1 61.7 6.4 8.3 10.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 10.0 9.9 7.9 1.3 67.1 62.9 6.3 8.1 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 11.5 11.2 8.1 1.3 66.4 62.1 7.3 9.3 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 3.9 4.8 5.7 1.2 65.0 60.8 1.1 3.1 5.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 10.0 11.0 6.3 1.3 65.6 61.1 7.2 9.2 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 9.0 9.8 5.7 1.3 64.4 60.7 6.5 8.3 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 9.8 9.7 7.8 1.3 67.3 63.0 6.1 7.9 9.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 4.3 3.9 5.9 1.4 66.3 62.4 0.8 2.4 3.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 10.8 11.9 7.1 1.4 66.0 61.5 7.9 9.9 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 11.1 10.8 6.6 1.4 66.3 62.2 7.0 8.9 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 11.7 11.3 6.3 1.4 66.2 61.8 7.2 9.3 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 11.4 11.0 6.2 1.3 65.4 61.4 7.4 9.3 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 10.1 11.0 5.8 1.2 63.8 60.2 7.3 9.4 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 12.1 11.8 7.7 1.5 66.6 62.9 7.5 9.7 11.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 7.9 8.8 6.0 1.2 65.1 61.2 5.4 7.2 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 10.6 11.7 6.0 1.3 64.9 60.8 7.9 9.9 11.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 9.5 9.3 7.7 1.3 67.3 63.1 5.7 7.5 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 34 66 100 8.8 8.5 6.6 1.5 66.1 62.4 5.3 7.0 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 10.5 10.4 8.1 1.3 67.1 62.8 6.6 8.5 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 8.3 7.8 5.1 1.4 65.8 62.6 4.1 6.0 7.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 11.5 11.2 7.6 1.3 66.0 61.5 7.4 9.4 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 10.2 10.0 7.8 1.3 66.6 62.6 6.2 8.1 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 10.3 10.2 8.3 1.4 67.2 62.9 6.4 8.3 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 12.2 11.8 7.6 1.5 66.5 62.6 7.8 9.8 11.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 10.3 10.1 6.5 1.3 66.0 61.6 6.6 8.4 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 9.3 9.9 5.6 1.0 62.1 59.1 7.0 8.7 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 11.4 11.2 7.3 1.3 66.4 62.0 7.4 9.3 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 8.6 9.4 5.9 1.3 64.7 60.6 5.9 7.8 9.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 8.2 7.7 6.1 1.5 65.9 62.6 3.8 5.9 7.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 39 61 100 9.9 9.8 8.0 1.3 66.8 62.6 6.3 8.0 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------