***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.11.2015.-29.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 9.0 8.7 8.6 -1.3 25.6 30.9 9.4 10.7 12.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 8.5 8.2 8.6 -1.2 25.8 31.2 8.9 10.1 11.3 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 9.5 9.3 8.7 -1.2 26.9 32.2 9.8 11.2 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 5.5 4.1 6.8 -0.7 37.0 40.7 3.8 5.1 6.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 11.7 9.8 7.3 -0.9 33.9 38.1 9.7 11.1 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 11.1 9.6 6.7 -0.6 39.0 42.0 9.0 10.5 11.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 8.4 8.0 8.5 -1.2 25.1 30.4 8.7 10.0 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 4.1 3.4 7.1 -0.3 43.8 45.9 2.7 3.7 4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 12.2 10.3 8.1 -0.9 33.8 38.2 10.2 11.6 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 11.4 10.0 7.5 -0.6 38.6 41.8 9.5 10.9 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.9 10.1 7.3 -0.8 35.5 39.2 9.8 11.3 12.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 11.7 10.2 7.3 -0.6 38.2 41.4 9.7 11.1 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 11.9 9.7 6.9 -1.0 32.2 36.3 9.8 11.3 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 9.8 9.9 8.3 -1.0 31.1 36.1 10.1 11.6 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 9.9 8.8 7.4 -0.6 39.4 43.0 8.3 9.5 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 12.4 10.4 7.0 -0.9 33.9 37.8 10.3 11.8 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 8.0 7.8 8.4 -1.2 26.2 31.5 8.4 9.6 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 10.1 9.0 7.5 -0.5 40.9 43.7 8.4 9.6 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 8.8 8.6 8.8 -1.2 26.6 32.1 9.1 10.4 11.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 8.6 8.2 6.4 0.1 52.1 52.1 6.7 8.1 9.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 9.6 9.6 8.4 -1.1 30.1 35.0 9.9 11.2 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 8.4 8.3 8.5 -1.2 26.5 32.0 8.8 10.2 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 8.9 8.7 8.9 -1.1 28.3 33.7 9.1 10.5 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 12.4 10.4 8.3 -0.9 33.2 37.6 10.4 11.8 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 8.8 8.8 7.4 -1.0 30.6 35.2 9.0 10.2 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 11.3 9.7 6.9 -0.7 37.2 40.7 9.4 10.7 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 9.4 9.2 8.0 -1.2 27.2 32.2 9.7 11.0 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 10.3 9.1 7.1 -0.7 37.7 41.4 8.7 9.9 10.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 8.1 7.3 7.2 -0.3 45.2 47.0 6.3 7.6 8.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 8.5 8.2 8.7 -1.3 25.5 30.9 8.9 10.1 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------