***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.11.2015.-08.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 96 4 0 100 2.0 1.0 0.7 6.6 11.2 9.9 4.6 8.6 14.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 98 2 0 100 1.5 0.7 0.6 5.9 9.3 8.3 3.9 7.7 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 96 4 0 100 1.7 0.7 0.6 6.5 9.2 8.2 4.2 8.1 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 98 2 0 100 1.0 0.2 0.7 5.1 6.6 5.8 3.1 7.3 13.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 96 4 0 100 1.5 0.6 0.9 7.5 9.8 8.6 3.7 7.3 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 97 3 0 100 1.3 0.6 0.7 5.3 9.6 7.4 3.1 5.9 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 99 1 0 100 1.0 0.4 0.6 5.7 9.5 8.4 3.1 6.4 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 95 5 0 100 1.8 0.4 0.7 5.8 7.9 6.3 5.0 11.3 21.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 96 4 0 100 1.4 0.6 0.8 7.7 10.4 8.7 3.3 6.6 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 95 5 0 100 1.7 0.6 0.9 7.1 8.8 7.4 3.9 7.5 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 94 6 0 100 1.2 0.5 0.8 7.0 9.7 8.0 3.0 6.4 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 95 5 0 100 2.0 0.8 0.7 6.0 9.1 7.2 4.4 8.4 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 93 7 0 100 1.7 0.7 0.8 6.2 10.5 8.3 3.8 7.7 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 96 4 0 100 3.0 0.9 0.8 6.5 7.2 6.4 6.8 12.4 20.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 98 2 0 100 0.8 0.2 0.6 4.3 7.5 6.1 2.4 5.5 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 96 4 0 100 1.2 0.5 0.7 6.3 10.2 8.4 3.2 6.6 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 100 0 0 100 0.9 0.4 0.6 5.6 9.7 8.6 3.0 6.6 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 96 4 0 100 2.2 0.6 0.8 6.3 7.4 6.4 5.0 9.6 15.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 98 2 0 100 1.4 0.5 0.6 6.1 9.0 8.1 3.9 7.8 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 98 2 0 100 2.2 0.4 0.7 4.1 4.7 4.1 5.5 10.4 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 96 4 0 100 1.3 0.8 0.8 7.8 11.7 10.0 3.3 6.7 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 98 2 0 100 1.2 0.6 0.6 6.1 10.0 9.1 3.3 6.7 11.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 98 2 0 100 1.9 0.7 0.6 6.3 8.0 7.2 4.7 9.2 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 96 4 0 100 1.8 0.7 0.7 6.5 8.3 7.2 4.3 8.4 14.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 95 5 0 100 1.5 0.7 0.9 7.2 10.7 9.4 3.9 7.8 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 98 2 0 100 1.0 0.3 0.6 4.6 8.7 7.0 2.9 6.2 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 96 4 0 100 1.4 0.6 0.7 6.7 10.5 9.2 3.6 7.4 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 98 2 0 100 0.8 0.2 0.6 4.6 7.0 5.8 2.4 5.4 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 97 3 0 100 3.3 1.0 0.8 5.6 5.9 5.2 7.6 13.9 22.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 98 2 0 100 1.3 0.6 0.6 6.0 9.9 8.7 3.6 7.1 12.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------