***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.11.2015.-15.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 75 25 0 100 3.0 5.8 6.3 61.1 44.1 31.4 3.9 6.9 10.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 75 25 0 100 2.9 5.2 5.6 53.0 40.0 28.9 3.9 7.4 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 72 28 0 100 3.5 6.5 6.3 56.6 42.8 31.3 4.3 8.5 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 4.0 8.7 7.6 63.0 47.6 32.1 4.8 9.3 15.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 69 31 0 100 3.7 7.4 7.9 63.4 46.9 33.8 4.4 8.2 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 3.5 6.0 8.5 55.8 44.1 34.6 3.9 7.4 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 75 25 0 100 3.1 5.4 5.4 53.7 40.2 29.4 4.1 7.5 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 68 32 0 100 4.7 8.3 8.2 57.9 43.8 33.1 5.5 10.1 16.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 3.4 6.3 8.4 64.5 46.6 34.7 3.7 7.2 12.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 65 35 0 100 3.3 6.0 8.7 61.9 44.8 34.2 3.5 7.5 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 69 31 0 100 3.0 6.1 7.2 60.7 45.6 33.3 3.4 7.2 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 66 34 0 100 3.8 6.8 7.2 57.4 45.5 34.1 4.2 8.0 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 3.7 6.6 7.6 56.3 44.9 35.5 4.0 8.0 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 71 29 0 100 4.2 7.4 8.3 55.9 41.5 32.3 5.2 9.8 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 79 21 0 100 2.2 5.8 7.5 55.6 46.5 30.4 3.2 6.7 12.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 69 31 0 100 3.1 6.1 7.1 57.9 45.1 33.8 3.8 7.2 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 73 27 0 100 3.1 5.5 5.4 52.9 41.0 29.3 3.9 7.7 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 3.5 6.0 9.6 61.3 43.5 34.4 4.0 7.6 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 75 25 0 100 3.0 5.3 5.8 52.8 39.4 28.8 4.0 7.7 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 70 30 0 100 4.0 6.7 10.0 55.7 40.5 31.5 4.9 9.6 16.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 3.9 7.6 7.6 65.9 48.5 35.1 4.1 8.0 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 73 27 0 100 3.1 5.6 6.0 53.4 40.5 28.8 3.9 8.2 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 3.2 5.1 6.3 52.9 39.2 29.6 4.0 7.3 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 3.6 6.1 8.2 57.7 42.2 33.0 4.2 8.1 13.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 66 34 0 100 3.0 5.8 7.7 62.1 46.4 33.6 3.4 6.7 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 3.5 6.1 7.4 52.2 44.2 33.6 3.7 7.7 13.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 2.6 4.9 6.9 60.3 44.4 32.4 3.0 6.0 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 74 26 0 100 2.5 6.0 7.4 58.6 46.2 31.0 3.2 7.1 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 67 33 0 100 5.2 8.8 9.8 59.4 43.1 33.8 5.9 11.3 18.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 74 26 0 100 3.2 5.5 5.6 54.3 40.1 29.2 4.2 7.7 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------