***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.11.2015.-22.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 5.2 11.8 9.6 90.1 61.2 44.2 5.0 8.6 13.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 4.4 11.9 9.4 90.1 60.8 43.5 4.3 8.4 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 5.9 13.9 9.3 85.9 59.1 42.7 6.3 10.9 16.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 6.0 16.4 10.6 87.6 60.1 42.8 6.4 11.9 19.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 4.8 14.2 9.9 87.9 60.0 43.3 5.3 10.1 17.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 5.8 17.0 10.8 94.0 61.0 44.0 6.2 11.9 20.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 5.1 12.2 9.5 92.7 61.5 44.0 5.2 8.8 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 66 34 0 100 7.4 21.5 10.8 86.0 58.0 42.5 8.2 16.2 27.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 4.4 12.9 9.9 88.0 59.5 43.7 4.5 9.3 16.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 5.7 14.7 10.6 85.6 58.1 43.1 6.0 11.3 18.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 5.4 16.3 9.3 88.8 59.9 42.2 6.0 11.6 19.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 4.6 17.0 9.5 90.3 59.9 42.7 4.8 11.3 21.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 5.4 17.7 10.1 94.7 61.6 44.6 5.4 11.6 20.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 8.3 18.9 11.3 87.7 58.8 43.0 8.4 14.7 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 68 32 0 100 4.6 16.6 11.3 87.2 59.7 41.9 5.1 11.3 21.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 5.3 16.5 9.5 92.7 61.2 43.3 5.6 11.2 19.3 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 5.8 12.5 8.9 88.9 60.2 43.9 5.6 9.5 14.6 30 Palic 37000G16 61 39 0 100 6.1 15.5 11.5 82.2 56.3 42.9 6.1 12.3 21.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 59 41 0 100 5.2 13.3 9.3 87.8 59.9 42.8 5.2 9.8 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 6.2 16.8 14.7 80.9 56.5 43.3 5.8 13.0 24.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 5.3 13.7 9.6 89.4 60.2 43.3 5.6 10.1 16.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 5.0 12.7 9.2 87.9 59.3 43.1 5.2 9.6 15.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 5.4 12.7 9.6 86.3 59.2 42.5 5.4 9.7 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 5.7 14.0 10.4 83.4 57.2 42.6 5.8 11.0 18.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 4.5 11.1 10.6 86.0 59.9 43.8 4.4 8.1 13.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 5.8 16.8 9.3 86.0 58.4 42.9 6.0 12.5 21.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 4.7 11.5 10.5 88.2 60.4 44.3 4.4 8.2 13.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 66 34 0 100 4.0 13.7 10.6 88.9 60.1 42.3 4.4 9.4 16.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 9.6 22.1 12.4 79.4 55.4 42.7 9.6 18.4 31.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 4.6 12.1 9.5 89.9 60.8 43.4 4.8 8.8 14.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------