***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.10.2015. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.11.2015.-29.11.2015. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 2.8 6.9 8.4 83.5 57.0 44.6 2.8 5.5 9.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 2.9 8.8 9.3 108.0 66.6 48.7 2.6 5.0 8.7 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 3.2 7.1 8.6 80.4 55.5 44.4 2.8 5.8 10.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 4.9 10.0 10.2 81.4 57.1 43.6 4.9 8.3 12.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 3.5 7.4 9.6 76.0 54.8 43.5 3.3 6.3 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 3.7 8.9 10.7 84.0 58.1 45.1 3.3 6.6 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 2.6 8.6 9.4 113.1 68.3 49.1 2.3 4.6 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 12.8 12.4 11.0 83.2 58.2 47.1 5.2 9.7 15.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 7.5 6.3 9.6 74.9 53.9 43.7 2.9 5.6 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 8.7 7.9 10.7 78.8 55.9 45.6 3.4 6.5 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 4.0 8.1 9.3 76.2 54.8 43.4 3.8 7.0 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 4.4 9.6 9.8 82.3 58.1 46.4 4.0 7.5 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 4.2 9.5 10.1 82.8 57.4 45.5 3.5 7.3 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 11.9 11.3 10.9 84.3 58.0 48.1 4.4 8.6 14.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 4.0 10.9 11.0 87.4 60.2 43.1 3.9 7.7 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 3.2 7.7 9.6 80.1 56.5 44.3 2.8 6.1 10.8 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 3.3 10.2 9.8 126.9 72.2 50.9 3.1 5.4 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 10.4 10.1 11.9 81.9 57.4 47.5 4.5 8.1 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 3.3 9.8 9.1 99.3 63.6 48.4 2.9 6.0 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 11.9 12.2 14.6 88.8 60.2 49.2 4.4 8.7 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 3.3 6.5 8.8 75.3 54.0 43.6 3.2 5.8 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 9.3 12.6 9.9 117.1 69.2 50.6 3.7 6.9 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 2.9 7.9 9.2 88.6 59.9 48.2 2.6 5.4 9.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 10.7 9.8 10.4 79.1 55.8 46.1 4.5 8.2 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 3.1 7.4 9.7 83.0 56.9 45.1 3.3 6.0 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 3.4 8.9 10.4 91.4 61.6 48.1 3.2 6.1 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 2.7 8.2 9.3 88.2 59.0 46.2 2.8 5.8 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 3.8 9.1 10.6 84.1 58.5 43.3 3.7 6.8 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 15.6 15.2 12.9 84.7 58.5 48.5 5.6 11.3 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 2.9 8.3 8.9 98.1 62.9 47.2 2.6 5.2 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------