***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.11.2020.-08.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 94 6 100 4.3 4.2 7.0 0.1 50.6 50.6 2.6 4.1 5.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 90 10 100 3.6 4.0 7.1 0.7 57.8 57.3 2.0 3.4 4.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 95 5 100 5.8 6.0 7.5 0.4 54.9 54.6 4.2 5.6 7.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 46 54 100 1.8 1.8 5.4 1.2 65.3 64.4 -1.1 0.4 1.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 93 7 100 3.2 3.6 6.1 0.6 56.5 56.2 1.6 3.1 4.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 88 12 100 2.5 3.0 3.5 0.8 59.9 59.2 0.8 2.2 3.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 90 10 100 3.7 3.9 6.9 0.5 55.7 55.3 2.1 3.4 4.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 88 12 100 -0.8 0.3 4.5 1.2 64.5 63.8 -2.8 -1.1 0.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 90 10 100 4.2 4.9 6.3 0.9 61.4 60.8 2.5 4.0 5.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 49 51 100 5.0 5.0 5.2 1.3 65.3 64.6 2.3 3.7 5.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 90 10 100 3.4 4.0 5.7 0.8 59.6 59.1 1.7 3.2 4.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 92 8 100 2.2 2.7 4.8 0.7 58.1 57.8 0.6 2.1 3.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 90 10 100 2.5 3.0 4.5 0.7 58.8 58.4 0.9 2.3 3.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 5.6 5.8 6.8 1.7 70.1 69.1 3.1 4.3 5.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 87 13 100 4.0 4.8 6.5 1.0 63.6 62.7 2.3 3.7 5.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 90 10 100 4.1 4.4 4.9 0.6 57.6 57.3 2.4 3.8 5.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 90 10 100 3.9 4.5 7.0 1.0 61.3 60.6 2.4 3.6 4.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 3.4 3.5 5.2 1.6 69.6 68.7 0.9 2.1 3.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 91 9 100 3.8 4.3 7.3 0.8 59.4 58.8 2.2 3.6 4.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 89 11 100 -0.3 0.6 3.8 1.2 64.6 64.2 -2.1 -0.6 0.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 91 9 100 3.8 4.0 6.9 0.4 55.1 54.8 2.1 3.5 4.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 87 13 100 3.5 4.2 7.6 1.3 64.7 63.9 2.0 3.2 4.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 91 9 100 3.8 4.5 7.5 1.1 62.5 61.7 2.4 3.6 4.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 46 54 100 4.4 4.5 6.6 1.4 67.1 66.3 2.1 3.3 4.4 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 92 8 100 4.1 4.0 6.5 0.1 51.2 51.2 2.4 3.9 5.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 92 8 100 3.0 3.1 3.9 0.3 53.2 53.2 1.4 2.8 4.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 93 7 100 3.9 3.6 6.6 -0.1 49.0 49.0 2.1 3.7 5.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 2.3 3.2 5.5 1.1 63.7 62.8 0.6 2.0 3.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 37 63 100 3.6 3.7 4.6 1.6 69.9 69.1 0.1 1.8 3.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 93 7 100 4.0 4.2 7.2 0.4 54.9 54.6 2.4 3.8 5.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------