***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.11.2020.-15.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 1.3 2.5 4.2 -0.6 42.3 43.7 1.8 3.1 4.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 0.8 1.9 3.8 -0.4 44.1 44.9 1.0 2.4 3.7 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 2.9 3.9 4.3 -0.5 43.1 44.6 3.1 4.4 5.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 -2.6 -1.3 1.9 -0.5 42.9 44.6 -2.2 -0.7 0.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 0.2 1.3 2.7 -0.5 42.8 44.5 0.5 1.8 3.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 -0.7 0.5 0.6 -0.5 42.0 44.0 -0.3 1.2 2.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 2.8 1.8 3.7 -0.5 43.4 44.1 0.9 2.3 3.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 -2.1 -2.8 1.2 -0.1 49.3 48.9 -4.1 -2.7 -1.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 1.0 2.0 2.8 -0.4 43.7 45.1 1.2 2.5 3.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 2.5 1.8 1.7 -0.2 47.7 48.0 0.7 2.0 3.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 -0.1 1.2 2.4 -0.4 44.5 45.4 0.2 1.7 3.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 -0.8 0.6 1.7 -0.3 46.2 46.5 -0.5 0.9 2.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 -0.3 0.7 1.3 -0.5 42.6 44.1 -0.1 1.4 2.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 3.4 3.0 2.9 0.0 49.7 49.5 2.0 3.0 4.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 -0.2 0.9 3.2 -0.7 40.2 42.6 0.3 1.7 3.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 0.7 1.9 1.8 -0.5 43.2 44.6 1.0 2.5 3.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 2.7 1.9 3.6 -0.3 45.3 45.5 1.0 2.2 3.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 1.0 0.5 1.3 0.0 49.8 49.6 -0.5 0.6 1.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 1.0 2.1 3.9 -0.4 44.0 45.1 1.2 2.5 3.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 -4.2 -2.0 0.3 0.1 51.2 50.8 -3.9 -2.2 -0.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 0.9 1.9 3.7 -0.6 41.9 43.7 1.2 2.5 3.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 0.6 1.6 3.7 -0.3 45.1 45.8 0.8 1.9 3.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 1.2 2.1 3.9 -0.4 44.6 45.8 1.4 2.4 3.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 2.2 1.6 2.6 -0.2 46.9 47.6 0.7 1.7 2.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 0.9 1.9 3.5 -0.6 42.0 43.9 1.3 2.5 3.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 -0.2 1.1 1.2 -0.4 43.9 45.6 0.1 1.6 2.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 59 41 0 100 1.1 2.4 3.8 -0.6 41.7 43.3 1.6 3.1 4.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 -1.3 -0.1 2.1 -0.6 40.8 43.1 -0.9 0.7 2.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 0.9 0.4 0.9 0.1 51.2 50.8 -1.2 0.3 1.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 1.1 2.2 4.0 -0.5 43.3 44.3 1.4 2.8 4.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------