***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.11.2020.-08.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 89 11 100 13.4 12.2 13.5 -0.7 42.4 42.8 11.1 13.0 14.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 89 11 100 13.1 11.9 13.6 -0.8 41.3 41.8 11.0 12.7 14.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 13.9 12.2 13.8 -1.0 39.0 39.6 11.5 13.4 15.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 93 7 100 7.1 7.0 10.9 0.1 50.9 50.7 5.1 6.9 8.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 87 13 100 13.6 12.2 12.5 -0.8 41.6 41.9 11.3 13.1 14.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 13.4 11.7 11.0 -1.1 39.0 39.5 11.0 12.9 14.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 89 11 100 12.9 11.7 13.4 -0.8 41.4 41.8 10.8 12.6 14.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 86 14 100 6.1 4.7 11.6 -0.8 41.4 41.9 3.8 5.6 7.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 85 15 100 14.2 12.6 13.3 -0.9 40.1 40.6 11.7 13.7 15.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 83 17 100 13.8 12.1 12.2 -1.0 38.9 39.5 11.4 13.2 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 14.1 12.0 12.7 -1.3 36.7 37.2 11.5 13.5 15.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 86 14 100 13.8 12.2 12.0 -1.0 39.7 40.1 11.4 13.3 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 14.1 11.8 12.4 -1.5 35.0 35.6 11.5 13.5 15.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 14.2 12.6 13.5 -1.0 39.7 40.2 11.9 13.7 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 93 7 100 12.5 12.7 12.9 0.3 54.4 53.8 10.9 12.3 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 14.5 12.6 12.2 -1.2 37.6 38.1 12.0 14.0 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 89 11 100 12.6 11.6 13.2 -0.6 43.2 43.6 10.6 12.2 13.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 13.0 11.4 12.0 -0.9 40.2 40.7 10.7 12.4 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 89 11 100 13.3 12.0 13.8 -0.8 40.7 41.2 11.1 12.9 14.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 88 12 100 11.0 10.0 10.9 -0.5 44.7 45.0 8.7 10.6 12.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 86 14 100 13.8 12.3 13.8 -0.9 40.3 40.8 11.5 13.4 15.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 91 9 100 13.1 12.4 13.6 -0.4 45.4 45.7 11.1 12.8 14.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 88 12 100 13.5 12.0 14.0 -0.9 40.1 40.6 11.2 13.1 14.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 83 17 100 14.5 12.6 13.4 -1.1 38.5 39.0 11.9 13.9 15.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 89 11 100 12.7 11.7 12.7 -0.6 43.6 43.9 10.6 12.4 14.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 92 8 100 13.6 12.7 11.6 -0.6 43.8 44.1 11.6 13.4 15.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 89 11 100 13.4 12.2 13.2 -0.7 42.2 42.6 11.2 13.1 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 91 9 100 12.6 12.4 11.9 0.0 50.6 50.3 11.0 12.4 13.7 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 86 14 100 10.2 8.9 11.8 -0.7 42.1 42.5 7.8 9.7 11.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 89 11 100 13.0 11.7 13.6 -0.8 40.9 41.4 10.8 12.6 14.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------