***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.11.2020.-15.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 9.2 10.9 10.5 -0.6 43.1 44.8 9.7 11.6 13.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 8.3 9.6 10.3 -0.7 41.7 43.4 8.6 10.4 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 9.2 10.9 10.8 -0.7 42.0 43.9 9.9 11.8 13.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 6.7 5.4 7.7 -0.3 45.8 47.6 4.0 5.8 7.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 9.6 11.4 9.3 -0.5 44.4 46.0 10.1 12.0 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 8.6 10.9 8.5 -0.2 47.5 48.7 9.2 11.2 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 8.0 9.5 10.3 -0.6 42.4 43.9 8.5 10.3 12.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 2.3 4.0 8.8 -0.3 46.7 48.2 2.8 4.3 5.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 9.8 11.6 10.0 -0.6 43.3 45.2 10.4 12.3 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 9.2 11.1 9.3 -0.4 45.8 47.2 9.8 11.5 13.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 9.5 11.5 9.7 -0.6 43.8 45.5 10.2 12.2 14.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 9.3 11.3 9.2 -0.4 44.9 46.7 9.9 11.8 13.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 9.4 11.3 9.5 -0.5 44.3 46.5 10.0 11.9 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 9.5 11.7 10.2 -0.5 45.0 45.9 10.2 12.2 14.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 10.5 9.0 8.9 -0.7 40.3 43.8 8.3 9.8 11.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 9.9 11.9 9.3 -0.5 44.9 46.5 10.5 12.5 14.4 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 7.9 9.2 10.0 -0.6 42.8 44.1 8.2 9.9 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 8.3 10.2 9.2 -0.3 47.2 48.4 8.8 10.5 12.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 8.7 10.1 10.5 -0.7 41.5 43.2 9.1 11.0 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 6.7 9.0 8.0 0.0 50.2 51.5 7.2 9.0 10.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 9.4 11.2 10.5 -0.6 43.2 45.0 10.0 11.9 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 8.3 9.9 10.1 -0.6 43.0 44.2 8.8 10.6 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 8.6 10.1 10.7 -0.7 42.0 43.6 9.1 11.0 12.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 10.0 12.0 10.3 -0.5 44.9 46.1 10.6 12.6 14.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 8.6 10.2 9.4 -0.5 44.4 46.2 8.9 10.8 12.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 9.1 10.8 8.9 -0.3 46.0 48.7 9.6 11.2 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 9.1 10.9 10.2 -0.5 44.3 45.9 9.6 11.5 13.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 8.5 9.6 8.4 -0.5 43.6 45.9 8.8 10.0 11.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 6.1 8.2 8.8 -0.2 48.1 49.5 6.6 8.4 10.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 8.4 9.7 10.4 -0.7 41.7 43.5 8.8 10.6 12.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------