***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.11.2020.-22.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 7.3 8.5 8.2 -0.9 38.6 47.1 7.8 10.0 12.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 6.8 7.7 7.9 -1.1 37.1 45.5 7.2 9.2 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 7.3 8.5 8.5 -1.0 38.1 46.3 7.8 10.1 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 5.4 3.3 6.0 -0.7 42.1 47.7 2.0 4.4 6.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 11.0 8.7 6.9 -0.9 40.3 46.8 7.7 10.0 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 6.8 8.9 6.7 -0.4 45.7 50.7 7.2 9.4 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 10.0 7.6 7.9 -1.0 37.8 46.0 7.0 9.1 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 0.2 1.8 6.7 -0.7 42.9 48.0 0.7 2.6 4.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 7.6 9.3 7.6 -0.9 40.2 46.8 8.2 10.6 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 6.9 8.8 7.1 -0.8 42.0 47.6 7.5 9.8 12.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 7.4 8.9 7.1 -0.9 40.5 46.8 7.8 10.3 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 7.4 9.0 7.0 -0.8 41.5 47.4 7.8 10.1 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 7.4 9.2 6.7 -0.7 42.5 48.4 7.9 10.2 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 7.4 9.3 8.0 -0.9 40.6 46.7 8.1 10.7 13.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 6.4 7.6 6.6 -0.7 41.4 47.1 6.6 8.5 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 8.1 9.7 6.9 -0.8 41.9 47.9 8.5 10.8 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 6.3 7.2 7.7 -1.0 37.7 45.3 6.7 8.6 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 5.9 7.7 7.3 -0.8 42.4 47.8 6.5 8.7 10.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 10.4 7.8 8.1 -1.1 36.8 45.2 7.2 9.4 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 3.7 6.0 5.9 -0.5 45.1 49.1 4.3 6.6 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 7.5 8.9 8.0 -0.9 39.8 46.9 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 6.6 7.5 7.8 -1.1 37.2 44.8 7.0 9.1 11.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 7.0 7.9 8.5 -1.1 37.3 45.0 7.3 9.5 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 7.8 9.5 7.9 -0.9 40.6 47.0 8.4 10.8 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 10.2 8.2 6.9 -0.8 40.3 47.6 7.3 9.4 11.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 7.2 8.8 6.7 -0.6 43.0 49.2 7.6 9.6 11.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 7.7 8.9 7.8 -0.8 39.6 47.6 8.0 10.2 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 10.2 8.3 6.3 -0.6 42.7 48.0 7.0 9.2 11.3 29 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 3.5 5.5 6.8 -0.7 43.1 47.9 4.1 6.5 8.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 6.9 7.7 8.0 -1.0 37.2 45.9 7.2 9.2 11.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------