***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.11.2020.-29.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 6.0 7.5 7.1 -0.6 42.5 46.4 6.4 8.3 10.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 5.9 7.2 7.0 -0.7 41.5 45.5 6.3 8.1 9.8 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 7.0 8.5 7.5 -0.7 42.6 46.4 7.3 9.3 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 3.9 2.4 4.8 -0.5 43.8 47.5 1.1 3.1 5.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.0 8.3 5.6 -0.7 42.2 45.7 7.2 9.2 11.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 9.1 8.2 5.6 -0.1 48.8 50.6 6.5 8.3 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 5.8 7.1 7.0 -0.7 42.0 45.9 6.1 7.9 9.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 3.1 1.9 5.5 -0.5 44.4 47.1 0.8 2.4 3.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 10.8 9.1 6.4 -0.7 42.8 45.8 7.9 9.9 11.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 9.7 8.2 6.0 -0.6 44.0 46.6 7.0 8.9 10.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 10.3 8.4 5.8 -0.7 42.3 45.8 7.2 9.3 11.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 10.1 8.5 5.6 -0.7 42.8 46.3 7.4 9.3 11.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 10.3 8.8 5.4 -0.5 44.6 47.5 7.3 9.4 11.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 7.2 9.0 7.0 -0.6 44.3 46.7 7.5 9.7 11.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 8.0 6.8 5.7 -0.4 45.6 49.4 5.4 7.2 8.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 10.8 9.1 5.5 -0.6 43.4 46.6 7.9 9.9 11.8 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 5.4 6.7 6.9 -0.6 42.5 45.7 5.7 7.5 9.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 7.7 6.5 6.2 -0.5 45.2 47.3 5.3 7.0 8.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 6.2 7.5 7.2 -0.8 41.3 45.4 6.6 8.5 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 6.8 5.7 4.8 -0.3 47.1 48.7 4.1 6.0 7.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 10.2 8.6 7.0 -0.6 43.5 46.7 7.4 9.4 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 5.7 7.2 6.9 -0.7 41.8 45.3 6.2 8.1 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 6.1 7.4 7.6 -0.7 41.8 45.7 6.4 8.3 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 10.7 9.2 6.9 -0.6 44.4 46.9 7.8 9.8 11.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 6.3 7.7 5.8 -0.5 43.9 47.0 6.6 8.4 10.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 9.3 8.2 5.3 -0.5 44.4 47.5 7.0 8.7 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 7.0 8.6 6.7 -0.6 43.3 46.6 7.4 9.3 11.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 8.6 7.2 5.2 -0.5 44.6 48.3 5.9 7.8 9.6 29 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 3.5 5.4 5.7 -0.4 45.9 47.9 3.8 5.9 7.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 6.0 7.2 7.0 -0.7 41.5 45.7 6.3 8.0 9.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------