***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.11.2020.-29.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 11.3 9.7 9.8 -0.7 37.2 42.8 9.4 10.7 12.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 10.7 9.0 9.7 -0.8 35.5 41.1 8.9 10.1 11.3 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 9.6 10.0 10.1 -0.8 35.3 41.2 9.8 11.2 12.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 3.6 4.5 7.4 -0.4 42.9 47.3 3.8 5.1 6.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 9.4 10.1 8.6 -0.7 37.7 42.8 9.7 11.1 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 8.8 9.8 8.0 -0.5 42.4 46.0 9.0 10.5 11.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 8.5 8.9 9.7 -0.8 36.3 41.7 8.7 10.0 11.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 2.6 3.2 8.1 -0.6 40.3 44.2 2.7 3.7 4.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 9.9 10.6 9.3 -0.8 36.9 42.2 10.2 11.6 13.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 9.2 10.0 8.6 -0.7 38.5 43.0 9.5 10.9 12.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 9.6 10.1 8.8 -0.9 35.7 40.8 9.8 11.3 12.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 9.5 10.1 8.5 -0.7 37.9 42.4 9.7 11.1 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 9.5 10.1 8.5 -0.8 36.9 41.2 9.8 11.3 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 9.8 10.6 9.7 -0.7 38.1 42.5 10.1 11.6 13.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 10.0 9.0 8.5 -0.4 42.5 47.4 8.3 9.5 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 10.1 10.7 8.5 -0.8 37.4 42.0 10.3 11.8 13.2 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 8.1 8.7 9.5 -0.7 37.1 42.4 8.4 9.6 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 8.2 8.9 8.6 -0.6 40.2 43.9 8.4 9.6 10.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 11.0 9.3 9.9 -0.9 35.0 40.7 9.1 10.4 11.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 8.6 7.7 7.4 -0.3 44.9 47.4 6.7 8.1 9.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 9.6 10.2 9.8 -0.7 37.0 42.5 9.9 11.2 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 8.6 9.2 9.6 -0.7 37.4 42.7 8.8 10.2 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 11.0 9.3 10.2 -0.9 35.2 40.8 9.1 10.5 11.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 10.1 10.8 9.6 -0.8 37.7 42.3 10.4 11.8 13.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 10.8 9.4 8.7 -0.6 39.1 44.3 9.0 10.2 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 9.2 10.0 8.1 -0.5 41.1 45.3 9.4 10.7 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 11.6 10.1 9.4 -0.6 38.2 43.4 9.7 11.0 12.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 8.6 9.4 7.9 -0.4 42.5 46.8 8.7 9.9 10.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 6.1 7.0 8.3 -0.5 41.8 45.1 6.3 7.6 8.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 10.7 9.1 9.8 -0.8 35.4 41.1 8.9 10.1 11.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------