***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.11.2020.-08.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 75 25 0 100 3.4 4.8 3.1 33.9 34.2 25.0 4.6 8.6 14.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 3.4 4.0 3.1 34.8 33.4 27.6 3.9 7.7 13.2 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 3.7 4.7 3.3 38.3 35.2 27.6 4.2 8.1 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 71 29 0 100 2.7 3.9 4.5 38.4 36.6 27.3 3.1 7.3 13.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 62 38 0 100 3.5 5.5 4.4 46.3 42.4 33.8 3.7 7.3 12.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 2.7 3.9 3.9 39.1 38.9 31.7 3.1 5.9 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 78 22 0 100 2.1 3.0 3.0 33.9 32.4 26.5 3.1 6.4 11.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 64 36 0 100 4.9 7.9 6.1 48.9 42.1 34.2 5.0 11.3 21.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 3.1 5.1 4.4 47.2 42.7 33.6 3.3 6.6 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 4.2 6.7 6.2 56.0 46.5 38.6 3.9 7.5 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 3.3 5.8 5.6 54.5 47.2 38.7 3.0 6.4 11.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 67 33 0 100 3.8 6.0 4.9 43.5 40.8 32.1 4.4 8.4 14.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 10.9 6.5 5.7 50.0 45.2 37.7 3.8 7.7 13.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 6.5 9.8 5.7 51.9 42.8 35.7 6.8 12.4 20.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 79 21 0 100 1.7 2.6 3.7 34.2 35.1 24.1 2.4 5.5 10.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 3.2 5.0 4.9 45.2 43.1 34.6 3.2 6.6 11.9 30 Nis 06700G01 64 36 0 100 2.9 3.6 3.6 38.5 36.2 30.2 3.0 6.6 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 5.2 7.0 5.8 49.7 41.6 34.7 5.0 9.6 15.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 3.4 4.2 3.3 36.8 34.9 28.2 3.9 7.8 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 63 37 0 100 5.2 6.3 6.1 41.2 36.4 29.9 5.5 10.4 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 2.9 4.2 3.8 40.8 38.6 28.9 3.3 6.7 11.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 70 30 0 100 2.8 3.6 3.6 36.2 35.0 28.3 3.3 6.7 11.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 69 31 0 100 4.0 5.6 3.7 40.9 36.8 29.5 4.7 9.2 15.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 4.4 6.3 5.0 49.9 41.8 34.4 4.3 8.4 14.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 3.0 4.5 3.8 37.2 36.6 26.9 3.9 7.8 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 74 26 0 100 2.3 2.8 3.4 29.5 32.6 24.7 2.9 6.2 11.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 73 27 0 100 2.9 4.0 3.4 34.8 35.2 26.2 3.6 7.4 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 74 26 0 100 1.9 3.1 4.1 37.6 37.0 26.9 2.4 5.4 9.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 61 39 0 100 7.2 9.8 5.8 46.4 39.2 32.8 7.6 13.9 22.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 75 25 0 100 2.7 3.5 2.9 33.7 32.7 26.1 3.6 7.1 12.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------