***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.11.2020.-15.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 3.8 7.4 8.3 69.3 52.4 38.5 3.9 6.9 10.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 4.1 7.3 6.9 62.1 49.6 38.1 3.9 7.4 12.3 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 4.6 8.7 8.3 67.8 51.3 38.2 4.3 8.5 14.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 4.6 10.8 11.2 75.5 54.2 39.9 4.8 9.3 15.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 3.8 8.1 8.8 66.0 49.7 36.4 4.4 8.2 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 4.3 8.5 9.7 73.4 54.0 40.9 3.9 7.4 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 4.0 7.4 6.9 62.3 49.8 38.9 4.1 7.5 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 5.6 11.7 10.6 74.5 54.5 40.6 5.5 10.1 16.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 3.9 8.0 9.4 72.8 53.4 41.3 3.7 7.2 12.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 61 39 0 100 3.6 8.3 9.8 72.1 53.0 39.6 3.5 7.5 13.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 66 34 0 100 3.2 7.2 9.1 67.4 49.9 37.3 3.4 7.2 12.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 4.2 8.7 9.8 71.5 52.9 39.3 4.2 8.0 13.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 4.1 8.0 9.3 65.4 49.8 37.1 4.0 8.0 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 5.2 10.9 10.2 73.1 53.4 40.2 5.2 9.8 16.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 3.1 8.0 11.2 73.7 54.9 39.9 3.2 6.7 12.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 3.7 7.6 9.4 70.8 51.8 39.6 3.8 7.2 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 3.9 7.7 7.0 63.8 50.1 38.7 3.9 7.7 13.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 10.3 8.9 10.4 76.4 55.2 41.8 4.0 7.6 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 4.3 7.9 7.3 65.0 50.5 38.8 4.0 7.7 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 5.2 10.3 12.3 71.5 51.9 38.1 4.9 9.6 16.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 4.3 8.9 9.2 72.8 53.3 40.5 4.1 8.0 13.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 4.1 8.4 7.6 66.1 50.6 39.9 3.9 8.2 14.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 4.2 7.9 8.3 70.3 52.2 39.7 4.0 7.3 12.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 4.6 9.2 9.8 74.4 54.0 40.6 4.2 8.1 13.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 3.2 6.5 9.0 63.8 49.4 35.3 3.4 6.7 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 4.4 8.8 10.5 70.2 53.7 40.2 3.7 7.7 13.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 3.0 6.2 8.3 65.0 50.7 37.6 3.0 6.0 10.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 64 36 0 100 3.1 8.3 10.6 73.7 54.0 39.4 3.2 7.1 12.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 6.3 12.9 11.0 75.3 54.3 40.9 5.9 11.3 18.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 4.4 7.7 7.2 63.3 50.2 38.1 4.2 7.7 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------