***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 23.11.2020.-29.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 7.5 11.1 15.1 123.3 71.1 57.8 2.8 5.5 9.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 2.9 9.8 13.5 118.3 69.8 55.9 2.6 5.0 8.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 7.9 12.2 14.8 124.3 71.5 58.3 2.8 5.8 10.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 10.5 14.2 16.3 120.7 70.6 56.5 4.9 8.3 12.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 8.5 13.3 16.8 131.2 73.2 57.5 3.3 6.3 10.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 3.4 14.0 15.7 125.3 71.6 56.7 3.3 6.6 11.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 6.3 8.8 13.2 117.1 69.4 55.4 2.3 4.6 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 5.5 18.6 17.2 126.9 71.9 56.7 5.2 9.7 15.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 7.6 12.1 17.3 132.9 73.6 58.4 2.9 5.6 9.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 3.7 13.5 17.6 128.9 72.5 57.2 3.4 6.5 11.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 4.2 14.2 16.1 130.4 72.9 57.2 3.8 7.0 11.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 4.2 15.0 15.7 128.1 72.3 57.4 4.0 7.5 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 15.8 15.5 16.4 125.9 71.8 57.9 3.5 7.3 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 11.7 17.3 18.0 123.0 70.9 57.5 4.4 8.6 14.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 4.3 14.0 15.2 109.6 67.6 54.2 3.9 7.7 13.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 13.1 13.2 15.8 125.7 71.7 57.1 2.8 6.1 10.8 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 3.3 9.0 12.8 112.8 68.1 54.2 3.1 5.4 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 4.9 14.9 17.9 123.2 70.9 56.2 4.5 8.1 12.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 8.5 12.6 13.8 120.6 70.4 57.0 2.9 6.0 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 5.0 16.5 21.3 118.5 69.6 55.1 4.4 8.7 14.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 7.5 11.3 16.2 129.7 72.8 58.4 3.2 5.8 9.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 9.3 12.6 13.6 116.3 69.3 55.1 3.7 6.9 11.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 7.6 12.1 14.5 123.5 71.2 58.3 2.6 5.4 9.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 10.9 15.3 16.7 123.0 70.9 56.7 4.5 8.2 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 8.0 11.5 16.6 123.2 71.1 57.7 3.3 6.0 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 12.5 12.2 16.3 124.7 71.5 57.1 3.2 6.1 10.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 8.3 12.6 15.9 123.9 71.2 57.8 2.8 5.8 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 4.0 12.8 15.3 117.8 69.8 55.7 3.7 6.8 11.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 6.2 22.4 18.7 119.7 69.9 55.2 5.6 11.3 19.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 7.3 10.7 13.8 120.2 70.4 56.8 2.6 5.2 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------