***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 29.10.2020. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.11.2020.-29.11.2020. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 45.2 40.6 41.0 89.7 51.9 47.1 28.6 39.3 51.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 45.7 40.2 36.7 87.6 50.8 47.2 28.0 39.4 52.9 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 35.0 48.7 41.1 91.1 52.4 47.3 35.6 46.8 59.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 60.2 53.8 49.4 91.7 52.2 46.7 37.2 51.7 68.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 52.1 49.2 46.9 95.5 54.8 49.1 33.5 45.5 59.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 51.5 48.5 46.4 94.9 54.7 50.0 32.6 44.9 59.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 42.6 36.9 35.8 86.0 49.8 46.3 26.9 37.1 48.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 79.5 73.8 52.1 94.8 53.9 49.3 50.6 69.1 90.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 47.6 46.0 48.1 97.8 56.2 50.2 30.6 41.5 54.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 54.5 52.3 51.5 97.5 55.7 50.2 35.6 47.8 61.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 53.1 51.1 47.5 96.5 55.3 50.2 33.2 46.6 61.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 59.0 54.2 47.0 93.0 52.9 48.3 36.2 51.2 68.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 59.0 53.7 48.1 91.9 52.4 48.0 36.8 51.3 68.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 71.9 70.2 52.9 97.1 55.9 51.1 52.5 65.6 79.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 30.6 45.9 47.4 87.6 50.5 45.2 30.2 45.9 64.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 50.2 45.8 46.6 93.6 53.6 48.9 27.6 42.1 60.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 45.0 39.4 36.1 86.6 50.0 46.2 28.5 39.4 51.9 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 40.3 57.7 52.3 95.6 54.2 49.2 40.9 54.4 68.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 51.2 46.8 38.5 90.3 52.4 48.4 33.2 45.0 58.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 46.5 64.7 62.1 90.7 50.7 46.8 48.1 63.8 81.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 48.3 45.1 44.8 94.3 54.2 48.7 31.3 42.2 54.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 51.1 46.4 38.8 89.3 51.8 47.8 33.4 45.1 58.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 52.1 49.3 41.8 94.0 54.4 49.9 36.5 46.6 57.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 33.4 52.2 48.6 95.5 54.5 49.2 33.9 47.9 64.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 46.8 41.0 45.5 89.0 50.9 46.2 29.4 40.3 53.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 33.2 47.7 47.2 88.2 50.1 45.6 34.0 47.7 63.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 46.9 42.0 42.3 88.7 51.2 46.7 30.9 41.3 52.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 49.9 43.4 46.9 90.8 52.0 46.7 28.4 41.8 57.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 61.3 83.9 54.6 93.3 52.4 48.2 63.6 81.3 100.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 45.2 40.0 37.5 87.8 51.0 47.1 28.3 39.2 51.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------