***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.11.2014.-09.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 11 89 100 6.4 6.6 8.4 2.4 76.9 75.8 2.4 4.0 5.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 18 82 100 5.3 5.6 7.8 2.3 76.0 74.8 1.6 3.2 4.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 7.4 7.5 7.7 2.1 74.1 73.0 4.1 5.5 6.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 93 7 100 0.4 0.5 3.6 0.2 53.1 53.0 -1.3 0.2 1.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 92 8 100 3.1 3.6 4.4 0.6 57.5 57.2 1.4 2.9 4.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 95 5 100 2.3 2.6 1.9 0.3 54.3 54.2 0.7 2.2 3.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 5.3 5.6 7.8 2.3 76.2 75.0 1.8 3.2 4.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 89 11 100 -1.2 -0.2 3.6 1.1 64.0 63.5 -3.2 -1.5 0.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 90 10 100 4.1 4.7 5.0 0.7 59.7 59.2 2.4 3.9 5.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 88 12 100 3.9 4.7 4.2 1.0 63.1 62.6 2.2 3.6 5.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 91 9 100 3.4 3.8 4.0 0.6 57.4 57.1 1.7 3.2 4.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 91 9 100 2.3 2.9 3.7 0.7 59.5 59.1 0.6 2.1 3.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 93 7 100 2.6 2.6 2.9 0.2 52.9 52.8 1.0 2.4 3.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 89 11 100 4.3 5.1 5.5 1.1 63.8 63.2 3.0 4.1 5.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 90 10 100 3.7 3.5 4.6 0.1 50.7 50.7 2.1 3.5 4.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 91 9 100 4.1 4.0 3.1 0.1 51.7 51.7 2.4 3.8 5.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 23 77 100 5.1 5.4 7.4 2.1 75.1 73.9 2.1 3.4 4.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 92 8 100 2.1 2.6 3.3 0.8 60.5 60.1 0.7 1.9 3.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 21 79 100 5.4 5.5 7.6 2.1 74.7 73.5 2.1 3.4 4.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 90 10 100 -0.5 0.4 2.1 1.1 62.8 62.4 -2.3 -0.7 0.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 44 56 100 4.8 4.9 6.7 1.4 67.4 66.6 1.9 3.4 4.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 4.6 4.8 7.2 1.9 73.6 72.5 1.8 3.0 4.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 4.9 5.0 7.0 1.7 71.0 69.8 2.1 3.4 4.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 89 11 100 3.4 4.1 5.1 1.0 63.2 62.5 1.9 3.1 4.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 5.5 5.5 6.4 1.7 70.0 69.2 2.2 3.7 5.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 90 10 100 3.1 3.3 3.1 0.4 55.5 55.4 1.3 2.8 4.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 26 74 100 5.8 5.9 7.2 2.0 72.7 71.6 1.8 3.5 5.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 92 8 100 2.1 1.8 3.7 -0.1 49.2 49.3 0.4 1.9 3.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 92 8 100 1.7 2.5 2.7 0.8 60.4 60.0 -0.1 1.5 3.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 16 84 100 5.9 6.1 8.1 2.3 76.5 75.4 2.1 3.6 5.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------