***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.11.2014.-16.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 4.4 4.5 6.0 1.5 67.9 63.9 1.8 3.1 4.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 43 57 100 3.8 4.0 5.8 1.6 69.2 65.3 1.0 2.4 3.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 42 58 100 5.8 6.0 5.7 1.6 69.7 65.5 3.0 4.4 5.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 1.2 1.6 3.5 1.6 72.3 67.7 -2.3 -0.7 0.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 3.2 3.4 3.7 1.5 69.9 65.8 0.6 1.9 3.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 2.5 2.9 2.3 1.7 72.4 68.8 -0.2 1.1 2.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 3.6 3.7 5.7 1.5 68.1 64.3 0.9 2.2 3.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 43 57 100 -1.2 -0.9 2.8 1.6 70.2 67.1 -4.1 -2.6 -1.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 3.9 3.9 4.3 1.4 68.0 64.2 1.2 2.6 3.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 44 56 100 3.2 3.4 3.3 1.6 69.0 65.8 0.7 2.0 3.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 42 58 100 3.0 3.3 3.5 1.6 70.8 66.8 0.3 1.6 2.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 41 59 100 2.3 2.5 3.2 1.5 70.0 66.7 -0.4 0.9 2.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 2.6 2.8 2.8 1.5 70.0 66.8 -0.1 1.2 2.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 43 57 100 4.1 4.4 4.5 1.7 71.5 67.8 1.9 3.0 4.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 3.3 3.6 4.0 1.7 73.7 68.7 0.3 1.6 2.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 3.7 4.0 3.1 1.6 71.2 67.3 1.1 2.4 3.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 3.4 3.5 5.5 1.5 68.1 64.7 1.0 2.2 3.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 43 57 100 1.6 1.8 3.0 1.7 69.6 66.7 -0.5 0.6 1.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 43 57 100 3.7 4.0 5.7 1.6 70.3 66.2 1.2 2.5 3.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 44 56 100 -0.4 0.0 1.9 1.9 70.6 68.2 -3.7 -2.0 -0.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 4.0 4.0 5.2 1.5 68.4 64.4 1.2 2.5 3.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 41 59 100 3.0 3.1 5.5 1.5 68.8 65.2 0.8 1.9 2.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 42 58 100 3.5 3.8 5.5 1.7 71.8 67.5 1.3 2.4 3.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 43 57 100 2.9 3.1 4.3 1.7 70.4 66.8 0.8 1.8 2.8 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 3.8 4.0 4.4 1.6 70.7 66.3 1.3 2.5 3.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 2.8 2.8 2.9 1.4 68.6 65.8 0.2 1.4 2.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 4.7 4.8 5.2 1.5 68.5 64.4 1.6 3.1 4.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 35 65 100 2.3 2.6 3.7 1.7 72.8 68.3 -0.8 0.6 2.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 43 57 100 2.0 2.3 2.7 1.9 70.3 67.7 -1.2 0.4 1.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 43 57 100 4.2 4.4 5.9 1.6 69.1 65.0 1.3 2.7 4.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------