***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.11.2014.-30.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 3.9 4.1 5.1 1.3 73.3 68.5 1.6 2.6 3.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 3.4 3.6 4.8 1.3 74.2 69.7 0.9 2.0 3.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 5.2 5.5 4.7 1.3 73.3 68.8 3.0 4.0 5.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 42 58 100 0.0 0.1 2.0 0.9 67.9 64.4 -2.4 -1.2 -0.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 2.6 2.6 2.4 0.9 67.3 63.9 0.7 1.6 2.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 1.9 2.1 0.9 1.0 70.4 67.2 -0.2 0.9 1.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 3.2 3.4 4.8 1.3 73.1 68.8 1.0 2.0 3.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 -1.9 -1.9 1.6 1.1 70.3 67.2 -4.2 -3.2 -2.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 3.5 3.3 3.1 0.8 66.6 63.3 1.5 2.4 3.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 37 63 100 2.9 2.9 2.1 1.0 69.1 65.7 0.9 1.8 2.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 2.5 2.5 2.2 0.9 67.9 64.7 0.5 1.5 2.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 39 61 100 1.7 1.7 1.9 0.9 67.9 65.1 -0.4 0.6 1.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 2.0 2.0 1.5 0.8 66.2 63.6 0.1 1.1 2.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 3.6 3.6 3.2 1.1 70.8 67.2 1.7 2.6 3.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 43 57 100 2.8 2.9 2.7 0.9 68.3 64.7 0.9 1.9 2.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 43 57 100 3.2 3.2 1.7 0.8 66.5 63.7 1.2 2.2 3.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 28 72 100 3.1 3.3 4.6 1.3 73.4 69.2 1.0 1.9 2.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 37 63 100 1.0 1.0 1.6 1.0 68.8 65.6 -0.7 0.1 0.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 26 74 100 3.4 3.5 4.7 1.3 74.3 69.9 1.1 2.1 3.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 -1.1 -1.0 0.5 1.2 71.2 68.2 -3.8 -2.6 -1.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 3.2 3.3 4.1 1.1 69.9 65.8 1.2 2.1 3.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 27 73 100 2.8 2.9 4.5 1.3 73.6 69.5 0.7 1.6 2.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 3.1 3.3 4.4 1.2 73.6 69.3 1.1 2.0 2.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 2.5 2.5 3.0 1.0 69.7 66.1 0.7 1.5 2.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 3.3 3.5 3.4 1.2 72.0 67.5 1.4 2.3 3.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 40 60 100 2.4 2.3 1.6 0.8 66.8 64.4 0.4 1.4 2.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 3.9 4.0 4.2 1.2 71.4 66.9 1.3 2.5 3.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 43 57 100 1.6 1.6 2.2 0.9 67.6 64.3 -0.4 0.6 1.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 1.1 1.2 1.2 1.1 69.8 66.7 -1.4 -0.2 0.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 30 70 100 3.7 4.0 4.9 1.3 74.0 69.5 1.3 2.4 3.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------