***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.11.2014.-09.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 40 60 100 14.7 15.0 14.7 1.8 70.1 69.2 10.8 12.7 14.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 14.7 14.9 14.9 2.1 73.8 72.9 10.8 12.5 14.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 32 68 100 15.4 15.7 15.0 2.0 71.9 70.9 11.3 13.2 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 87 13 100 7.0 7.0 10.4 0.3 53.8 53.5 4.6 6.5 8.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 89 11 100 13.2 14.5 12.7 1.4 64.7 64.0 10.9 12.8 14.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 14.4 14.6 12.4 2.1 69.4 68.7 10.4 12.4 14.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 14.6 14.7 14.8 2.1 73.4 72.5 10.5 12.2 13.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 44 56 100 6.9 6.9 12.2 1.8 67.0 66.4 3.2 5.0 6.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 15.5 15.5 14.1 1.8 68.6 67.8 11.3 13.3 15.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 15.0 15.0 13.4 2.1 69.3 68.6 11.0 12.8 14.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 15.3 15.2 13.1 1.8 67.5 66.8 11.1 13.1 15.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 49 51 100 14.5 14.5 12.4 1.5 64.9 64.4 10.9 12.8 14.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 40 60 100 15.1 15.1 13.1 1.9 67.7 67.3 11.0 13.0 14.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 13 87 100 16.4 16.7 15.6 2.9 77.0 76.0 11.7 13.6 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 12.5 12.1 11.1 -0.1 49.5 49.5 10.7 12.1 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 15.7 15.7 13.0 1.8 67.7 67.0 11.5 13.5 15.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 14.2 14.5 14.7 2.2 75.3 74.2 10.4 12.0 13.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 14.4 14.6 13.8 2.7 73.1 72.4 10.1 12.0 13.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 15.1 15.4 15.1 2.2 74.7 73.7 10.9 12.7 14.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 37 63 100 12.3 12.4 11.6 2.3 69.9 69.3 8.0 10.0 11.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 41 59 100 15.0 15.2 14.5 1.8 68.6 67.7 11.1 13.0 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 15.1 15.5 14.9 2.4 77.2 75.9 10.9 12.6 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 21 79 100 15.4 15.8 15.3 2.4 75.8 74.8 11.1 12.9 14.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 16.3 16.7 15.1 2.7 74.6 73.8 11.7 13.6 15.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 49 51 100 13.7 13.8 13.1 1.5 65.9 65.0 10.3 12.1 13.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 97 3 100 13.0 13.7 11.2 0.8 57.7 57.5 11.1 12.9 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 36 64 100 14.9 15.0 14.3 1.9 70.4 69.6 10.8 12.7 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 12.5 12.2 10.8 0.2 51.1 51.0 10.7 12.1 13.4 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 18 82 100 12.1 12.2 13.4 2.9 74.7 74.0 7.2 9.2 11.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 14.6 14.8 15.0 2.0 72.9 71.9 10.6 12.4 14.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------