***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.11.2014.-30.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 5.7 8.0 7.5 -0.1 48.7 49.5 6.2 8.2 9.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 5.8 7.8 7.3 -0.1 48.9 49.4 6.1 7.9 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 6.8 9.0 7.5 -0.1 48.6 49.5 7.2 9.2 11.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 3.6 2.8 5.5 0.0 49.8 50.9 1.0 2.9 4.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 9.8 8.9 5.9 -0.1 49.1 50.3 7.1 9.0 10.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 8.8 8.1 5.4 0.0 50.3 51.3 6.3 8.1 9.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 5.5 7.6 7.1 -0.1 48.5 49.0 6.0 7.7 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 2.9 2.3 5.5 0.0 50.6 51.7 0.6 2.2 3.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 10.4 9.5 6.6 -0.1 48.6 49.8 7.7 9.6 11.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 9.5 8.7 6.1 0.0 49.6 50.7 6.9 8.8 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 10.0 9.2 5.9 0.0 50.0 51.0 7.1 9.2 11.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.8 9.2 5.8 0.1 50.6 51.5 7.3 9.1 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 10.0 9.2 5.6 0.1 50.9 51.7 7.1 9.1 11.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 6.9 9.3 7.0 0.0 49.8 50.1 7.3 9.3 11.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 7.8 7.2 5.7 0.0 50.4 51.4 5.5 7.1 8.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 10.5 9.7 5.6 0.0 50.3 51.2 7.7 9.7 11.6 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 5.0 7.2 7.1 0.0 50.1 50.0 5.5 7.2 8.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 7.3 6.7 6.0 0.0 50.3 51.2 5.1 6.7 8.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 6.0 8.2 7.4 -0.1 49.2 49.6 6.4 8.2 10.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 6.6 6.1 4.7 0.2 52.7 53.4 3.9 5.8 7.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 10.0 9.0 7.1 -0.1 48.8 49.8 7.2 9.1 11.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 5.5 7.9 7.2 0.1 50.9 50.5 6.0 7.8 9.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 5.7 8.1 7.6 0.0 49.5 49.7 6.3 8.1 9.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 7.3 9.5 6.9 -0.1 49.3 50.1 7.6 9.5 11.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 8.9 8.1 6.2 0.0 50.0 50.8 6.4 8.1 9.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 9.2 8.7 5.6 0.1 51.5 52.3 6.8 8.5 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 6.7 9.1 6.9 -0.1 49.3 49.9 7.2 9.1 10.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 8.3 7.6 5.6 0.0 49.8 50.8 5.9 7.6 9.2 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 6.5 5.9 5.6 0.2 51.8 52.4 3.8 5.7 7.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 5.8 7.8 7.4 -0.1 48.4 49.1 6.2 7.9 9.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------