***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.11.2014.-30.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 41 59 100 11.9 12.1 11.0 1.2 69.8 66.4 9.0 10.5 11.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 11.4 11.5 10.9 1.2 71.7 68.0 8.6 9.8 11.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 12.5 12.6 11.1 1.2 69.9 66.7 9.6 10.9 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 5.2 5.7 8.3 0.7 62.3 60.3 3.5 4.8 6.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 40 60 100 12.3 12.1 9.3 1.0 66.0 63.4 9.4 10.8 12.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 11.7 11.8 8.7 1.2 68.9 65.7 8.8 10.2 11.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 11.2 11.4 10.8 1.2 71.4 67.7 8.4 9.7 10.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 4.7 4.6 8.8 1.1 67.8 65.4 2.5 3.5 4.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 39 61 100 12.9 12.8 10.2 1.1 67.3 64.6 9.9 11.4 12.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 12.2 12.1 9.5 1.2 68.3 65.7 9.2 10.6 11.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 12.7 12.6 9.3 1.1 67.1 64.5 9.5 11.0 12.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 42 58 100 12.3 12.2 9.1 1.0 66.3 64.0 9.4 10.9 12.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 12.5 12.6 9.1 1.2 68.0 65.3 9.5 11.0 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 13.1 13.5 10.9 1.5 73.4 69.5 9.8 11.3 12.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 9.6 10.0 8.5 0.6 60.6 59.1 8.0 9.2 10.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 13.1 13.0 9.1 1.1 67.3 64.5 10.0 11.5 12.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 10.8 11.0 10.7 1.3 73.1 69.1 8.1 9.3 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 10.8 10.9 9.6 1.4 71.4 68.3 8.1 9.3 10.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 11.8 12.0 11.1 1.3 72.0 68.3 8.9 10.2 11.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 9.5 9.6 8.0 1.4 72.1 69.2 6.4 7.8 9.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 12.5 12.5 10.6 1.1 68.1 65.2 9.6 11.0 12.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 11.5 11.9 10.9 1.4 74.0 69.9 8.6 9.9 11.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 35 65 100 11.8 12.0 11.3 1.3 72.3 68.6 8.9 10.2 11.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 32 68 100 13.2 13.4 10.7 1.4 71.5 68.1 10.1 11.5 12.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 11.4 11.4 9.6 1.1 68.6 65.5 8.7 10.0 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 41 59 100 11.8 11.6 8.6 0.9 65.2 63.0 9.1 10.5 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 12.3 12.5 10.5 1.2 70.6 67.1 9.4 10.8 12.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 9.9 10.3 8.5 0.6 60.6 59.0 8.4 9.6 10.7 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 9.1 9.3 9.2 1.6 73.6 70.3 6.0 7.3 8.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 11.4 11.5 11.0 1.2 70.9 67.3 8.6 9.9 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------