***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.11.2014.-09.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 66 34 0 100 4.1 5.2 5.0 41.7 36.1 29.5 4.6 8.5 14.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 3.9 5.6 6.3 58.2 42.3 34.9 3.7 7.7 13.7 30 Becej 27400G00 62 38 0 100 4.0 4.9 5.2 45.1 36.6 30.4 4.2 8.0 13.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 54 46 0 100 4.3 4.2 7.3 47.5 36.5 33.1 3.5 8.2 15.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 3.0 3.6 6.3 45.2 34.7 30.7 3.2 6.8 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 3.6 4.5 6.9 47.0 41.2 36.1 3.2 6.2 10.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 3.3 4.6 5.9 54.6 41.1 33.5 3.1 6.6 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 5.4 8.3 8.5 60.3 43.7 37.7 4.7 11.0 20.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 2.9 3.9 5.9 46.9 37.6 32.1 3.2 6.3 10.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 3.7 4.8 6.8 50.0 37.9 32.9 3.9 7.5 12.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 3.5 4.3 6.6 48.9 38.4 33.6 3.3 6.8 11.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 4.5 6.8 8.2 60.4 46.4 39.8 3.9 7.8 13.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 4.3 5.4 7.2 48.8 40.4 34.5 3.7 7.8 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 6.6 9.3 7.8 59.6 41.8 35.5 6.7 12.0 18.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 3.3 4.3 8.9 54.2 42.5 37.6 2.6 6.1 12.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.9 4.8 7.0 49.2 39.9 35.0 3.5 7.2 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 3.9 6.1 6.7 61.1 44.5 37.1 3.6 7.7 13.5 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 4.6 5.8 7.7 55.2 38.3 33.6 4.6 9.0 15.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 3.7 5.6 6.3 58.1 42.5 35.1 3.6 7.5 13.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 5.2 8.3 12.1 70.6 46.2 40.4 4.7 9.5 16.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 2.6 3.5 5.3 42.8 36.2 30.5 3.0 6.1 10.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 61 39 0 100 3.6 6.6 7.4 65.8 46.8 38.2 3.6 7.4 13.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 4.5 6.6 6.4 57.0 42.1 34.9 4.5 8.7 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 4.0 5.1 6.7 51.9 37.4 32.3 4.2 8.1 13.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 2.7 3.1 5.4 39.3 32.4 28.0 3.2 7.0 12.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 3.8 7.2 10.5 67.2 50.8 42.4 3.3 6.9 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 3.2 4.0 5.2 40.3 34.7 28.8 3.8 7.4 12.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 3.1 3.7 8.0 51.1 40.2 36.1 2.5 5.8 11.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 6.8 9.3 8.9 60.2 40.1 34.9 6.9 13.3 22.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 3.5 4.5 5.8 52.8 39.6 32.5 3.3 6.9 12.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------