***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 10.11.2014.-16.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 3.1 5.1 6.2 52.0 44.0 34.5 3.2 6.3 10.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 61 39 0 100 3.5 6.0 6.4 54.3 45.3 34.2 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 3.8 6.6 6.4 53.1 43.2 34.6 4.3 8.6 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 5.4 8.1 8.0 60.8 46.1 38.0 4.9 9.3 15.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 53 47 0 100 5.4 8.2 7.2 58.6 45.5 37.5 5.0 9.4 15.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 4.4 6.6 7.5 59.6 42.6 33.8 4.7 8.5 13.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 3.6 6.0 6.2 52.9 44.3 33.8 3.9 7.2 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 58 42 0 100 6.7 10.3 7.9 59.3 44.7 35.3 6.8 12.1 19.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 4.4 6.7 7.1 57.5 43.7 35.8 4.3 8.4 14.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 4.8 7.1 7.5 57.6 43.1 34.7 4.8 9.2 15.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 4.5 7.3 6.9 60.3 46.2 37.2 4.3 8.5 14.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 4.9 8.4 7.3 61.8 47.0 37.3 4.8 9.2 15.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 4.6 7.0 7.3 59.5 44.2 35.3 4.5 8.6 14.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 4.7 6.9 7.0 49.5 40.1 33.3 5.1 9.9 16.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 3.6 6.3 9.5 66.0 47.9 38.2 3.2 6.8 12.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 4.6 7.1 7.1 60.6 44.7 36.3 4.7 8.5 13.5 30 Nis 06700G01 63 37 0 100 3.5 6.3 6.8 58.2 46.8 34.4 3.7 7.1 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 4.6 6.8 8.0 55.6 42.5 34.7 4.7 8.9 15.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 3.6 6.1 6.3 52.9 44.2 33.8 3.9 7.6 12.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 6.1 9.3 10.7 58.3 44.4 35.7 5.9 11.4 19.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 5.0 7.4 6.5 54.1 43.8 35.4 5.0 9.2 15.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 3.8 7.4 7.2 58.1 46.0 34.2 4.5 8.4 14.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 68 32 0 100 3.5 5.9 6.1 49.9 42.2 33.3 4.1 7.7 12.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 4.2 6.3 7.0 52.5 41.8 34.2 4.3 8.5 14.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 3.7 5.6 6.8 50.8 43.6 34.6 3.6 7.1 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 4.6 8.0 7.7 61.9 46.3 36.1 4.8 9.0 14.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 3.1 5.2 6.5 51.0 43.7 34.1 3.2 6.7 11.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 3.7 6.5 8.8 66.3 47.6 38.7 3.2 7.1 13.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 59 41 0 100 7.0 9.9 8.5 54.9 41.7 34.2 7.1 13.1 21.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 65 35 0 100 3.3 5.8 6.3 53.2 44.4 34.2 3.6 7.1 12.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------