***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 17.11.2014.-23.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 5.5 12.9 11.4 100.6 63.7 48.7 5.4 9.0 13.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 4.0 13.0 11.6 103.0 65.0 50.9 3.7 7.6 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 5.4 13.1 11.1 94.7 61.2 47.9 4.9 9.2 15.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 14.5 15.2 11.9 90.2 60.3 48.6 5.6 10.9 18.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 12.3 12.3 11.1 87.1 58.7 48.0 4.8 9.2 15.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 7.1 14.2 9.9 76.7 54.5 45.8 6.4 12.2 20.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 4.7 12.4 11.7 102.4 64.6 50.5 4.5 8.1 13.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 21.4 20.8 11.2 86.0 57.8 47.8 8.4 16.1 27.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 11.9 11.7 11.3 86.8 58.7 47.8 4.1 8.5 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 13.2 12.6 11.4 84.5 57.4 47.3 4.7 9.7 17.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 14.7 14.1 10.1 84.9 57.7 47.4 5.4 10.8 18.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 6.4 15.3 9.9 86.2 57.7 47.6 5.2 11.5 20.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 6.9 15.2 9.9 82.2 56.2 46.5 6.2 12.3 21.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 8.1 18.8 12.8 90.1 59.4 47.5 7.7 14.1 22.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 15.8 17.9 12.5 94.1 62.9 49.9 4.6 10.7 20.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 15.2 13.9 9.9 82.6 56.8 46.9 5.7 11.1 18.7 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 5.1 13.5 11.4 103.3 65.2 51.4 4.9 8.8 13.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 15.7 14.8 12.5 84.0 57.0 46.8 5.8 11.7 19.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 5.6 15.4 11.5 100.6 63.9 49.9 5.6 10.1 16.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 17.7 17.6 15.3 87.6 58.4 48.0 6.0 12.7 22.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 11.6 12.1 11.1 91.9 60.4 48.0 4.4 8.6 14.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 6.0 14.6 11.4 98.5 63.4 50.3 5.7 10.0 15.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 5.0 13.6 11.5 97.5 62.5 48.7 5.1 9.3 15.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 6.4 14.2 11.8 86.2 57.7 46.6 5.5 11.0 18.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 4.3 11.0 12.5 96.2 61.8 47.5 4.0 7.5 12.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 16.5 16.6 10.7 91.3 59.7 48.6 5.7 11.8 20.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 4.3 10.9 12.1 96.9 62.3 47.5 4.0 7.5 12.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 12.5 12.7 11.5 87.4 59.8 48.9 4.2 8.9 15.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 23.5 22.2 13.4 83.9 56.9 46.6 9.7 17.8 29.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 4.8 12.8 11.5 100.5 63.9 49.8 4.4 8.3 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------