***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 24.11.2014.-30.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 61 39 0 100 2.6 6.0 7.7 72.3 52.4 40.6 2.6 5.4 9.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 2.7 6.0 8.2 78.8 54.9 41.7 2.7 5.2 8.6 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 3.1 7.0 8.0 72.2 52.6 40.6 3.2 6.4 11.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 5.7 12.6 10.3 90.5 59.7 43.6 6.3 10.0 14.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 3.2 8.1 9.3 81.3 56.1 41.6 3.2 6.5 11.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 3.0 9.4 10.7 93.1 61.1 45.5 3.2 6.4 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 2.5 5.9 8.0 80.4 55.5 41.9 2.4 4.9 8.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 6.5 13.0 10.1 84.9 58.1 44.6 6.6 10.7 15.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 2.7 6.4 8.9 75.3 53.8 41.1 2.8 5.6 9.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 4.3 9.1 9.6 79.3 55.9 43.1 4.2 7.7 12.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 2.9 7.9 9.0 82.7 57.0 42.9 2.9 6.2 11.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 4.0 10.6 9.6 90.5 60.6 45.3 4.0 7.5 12.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 3.4 10.7 10.5 93.7 61.2 45.3 3.5 7.2 12.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 61 39 0 100 4.1 10.0 10.4 78.1 55.1 43.6 4.3 8.4 14.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 4.1 13.3 11.3 101.2 64.1 45.8 4.2 8.3 14.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 3.1 9.1 9.8 90.5 59.9 44.4 3.2 6.5 11.2 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 3.0 6.3 8.1 79.4 55.3 41.4 3.1 5.4 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 60 40 0 100 4.5 10.5 10.7 80.8 56.3 44.2 4.6 8.6 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 2.9 6.7 8.3 76.9 54.5 41.7 2.7 5.7 10.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 5.2 11.7 13.0 83.8 56.9 44.6 5.1 9.5 15.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 2.8 6.2 8.1 71.7 52.0 39.5 2.9 5.8 9.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 3.2 7.5 8.5 76.8 54.4 41.2 3.2 6.4 11.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 2.9 6.6 8.7 75.9 54.2 41.8 2.7 5.6 10.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 62 38 0 100 3.9 9.2 9.7 77.1 55.2 43.1 4.2 7.7 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 60 40 0 100 2.8 6.8 9.1 78.2 55.2 42.0 2.8 5.7 9.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 3.0 8.9 10.8 95.6 62.3 46.2 3.3 6.1 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 2.8 6.9 8.6 75.7 54.2 42.1 2.7 5.9 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 4.3 11.6 10.8 96.1 61.9 45.3 4.7 8.2 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 7.6 16.6 11.5 81.5 56.3 44.6 7.6 13.8 22.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 2.4 5.9 8.0 76.3 54.0 41.4 2.4 5.1 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------