***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 30.10.2014. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 03.11.2014.-30.11.2014. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 25.9 31.5 30.3 66.0 36.8 34.3 29.1 39.9 52.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 28.0 33.8 32.5 73.4 41.3 39.1 28.4 39.9 53.1 30 Becej 27400G00 68 32 0 100 30.7 36.1 30.7 66.1 34.9 33.5 34.8 46.8 60.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 62 38 0 100 37.0 43.9 37.5 70.6 37.7 35.5 40.1 54.6 70.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 66 34 0 100 30.9 36.0 34.0 67.3 35.2 33.6 34.5 46.7 60.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 33.3 35.4 34.9 67.7 34.8 34.2 34.2 46.1 59.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 27.0 31.8 31.8 72.4 41.1 38.7 27.1 37.6 49.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 47.7 56.1 37.8 72.0 38.1 36.3 51.0 69.5 90.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 67 33 0 100 27.6 32.2 33.2 66.7 34.6 33.2 31.4 42.5 55.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 66 34 0 100 33.7 38.6 35.4 67.6 34.3 33.1 37.6 49.8 63.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 31.8 37.1 32.7 68.3 36.2 34.5 34.9 48.0 62.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 35.5 43.3 35.0 73.7 40.5 38.1 37.3 51.8 69.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 59 41 0 100 35.1 39.8 35.0 69.5 36.1 35.2 37.4 52.2 69.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 65 35 0 100 45.0 51.2 37.9 69.4 35.2 34.5 49.5 63.4 78.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 29.9 41.2 42.2 76.3 42.7 39.2 32.6 48.8 67.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 26.8 31.8 33.7 69.3 36.5 35.2 29.0 43.4 61.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 45.4 34.6 33.0 75.2 42.7 40.2 28.7 39.4 51.9 30 Palic 37000G16 66 34 0 100 37.8 43.1 39.0 68.9 34.5 33.5 42.1 55.4 70.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 31.9 37.6 32.4 71.9 39.9 37.9 33.0 44.8 58.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 43.5 51.7 51.1 74.7 38.8 37.4 46.2 62.7 81.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 71 29 0 100 26.8 31.7 31.0 64.9 33.7 32.3 31.5 42.7 55.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 50.9 38.2 34.6 74.5 40.7 39.2 33.1 44.9 58.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 33.4 38.1 32.7 69.9 38.0 36.3 35.2 45.5 56.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 29.3 33.9 35.2 67.0 33.8 32.9 33.4 47.9 65.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 23.3 28.8 33.8 65.3 35.0 33.0 27.5 39.1 52.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 34.3 42.6 39.7 77.7 43.4 41.0 34.5 48.2 63.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 69 31 0 100 26.3 31.9 32.4 65.4 35.8 33.6 30.2 40.8 52.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 29.1 36.0 39.1 73.3 39.8 37.3 30.9 44.4 60.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 64 36 0 100 58.9 66.6 42.3 70.1 35.1 34.2 64.4 82.4 102.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 27.2 31.9 31.6 70.6 39.1 37.1 28.1 39.2 51.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------