***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2013.-10.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 20 80 100 9999.0 6.5 8.2 2.4 78.1 75.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 25 75 100 5.1 5.6 7.6 2.1 75.9 73.3 1.5 3.1 4.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 20 80 100 7.4 7.9 8.0 2.4 78.2 76.0 3.8 5.3 6.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 6 94 100 2.7 4.7 6.8 3.5 89.9 87.3 -1.6 0.0 1.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 10 90 100 5.4 6.7 7.2 3.2 85.5 83.1 1.3 2.9 4.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 5 95 100 4.8 6.4 5.1 3.3 88.1 86.3 0.6 2.1 3.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 24 76 100 5.1 5.6 7.6 2.2 76.7 74.0 1.6 3.1 4.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 10 90 100 0.8 1.8 5.6 3.1 82.7 80.9 -3.7 -2.0 -0.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 13 87 100 5.9 6.9 7.3 2.8 82.9 80.8 2.2 3.7 5.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 12 88 100 5.7 6.5 6.2 2.9 82.1 80.1 1.8 3.4 4.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 6 94 100 5.6 6.7 6.7 3.1 84.9 83.0 1.5 3.0 4.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 7 93 100 4.5 5.6 6.2 3.2 84.4 82.7 0.4 1.9 3.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 6 94 100 4.9 6.0 6.2 3.3 85.7 83.9 0.9 2.4 3.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 21 79 100 5.7 6.1 6.9 2.3 77.2 75.0 2.8 4.0 5.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 7 93 100 5.6 7.5 7.6 3.3 90.1 87.9 1.9 3.3 4.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 4 96 100 6.4 7.8 6.5 3.4 87.3 85.4 2.2 3.7 5.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 4.9 5.3 7.2 2.0 75.1 72.4 1.8 3.2 4.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 17 83 100 3.5 4.1 5.5 2.7 80.0 77.8 0.5 1.7 2.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 24 76 100 5.2 5.6 7.6 2.1 75.8 73.5 1.9 3.3 4.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 13 87 100 1.6 2.6 4.4 3.2 82.2 80.2 -2.7 -1.0 0.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 15 85 100 5.5 6.4 8.0 2.7 81.9 79.6 1.6 3.2 4.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 4.4 4.8 7.2 1.9 74.4 71.9 1.6 2.9 4.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 24 76 100 5.1 5.5 7.4 2.1 75.9 73.9 1.9 3.3 4.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 19 81 100 4.7 5.3 6.7 2.5 78.8 76.7 1.5 2.8 4.1 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 16 84 100 6.0 6.9 7.5 2.7 81.8 79.2 2.0 3.6 5.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 9 91 100 5.3 6.4 5.9 3.1 84.1 82.1 1.1 2.7 4.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 20 80 100 6.1 7.0 7.7 2.6 79.5 77.0 1.5 3.4 5.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 4 96 100 4.5 6.9 7.4 3.8 91.9 89.7 0.2 1.8 3.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 16 84 100 3.7 4.5 4.9 2.8 80.4 78.4 -0.4 1.3 2.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 23 77 100 5.6 6.1 7.8 2.2 76.6 74.2 1.9 3.5 5.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------