***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2013.-01.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9999.0 3.1 4.0 0.5 59.0 55.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 2.3 2.7 3.7 0.7 62.2 58.7 0.8 1.9 3.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 4.2 4.6 3.8 0.6 61.5 58.0 2.8 3.9 4.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 -1.0 -0.2 1.9 0.9 66.6 62.8 -2.6 -1.4 -0.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 82 18 100 1.8 2.3 2.2 0.8 63.3 59.7 0.6 1.5 2.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 1.2 1.5 0.5 0.7 62.2 58.9 -0.2 0.8 1.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 83 17 100 2.2 2.6 3.7 0.6 61.8 58.2 0.9 1.9 2.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 -2.9 -2.8 1.0 0.5 59.1 55.9 -4.4 -3.3 -2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 2.6 3.0 2.8 0.7 61.9 58.3 1.3 2.3 3.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 2.0 2.3 1.6 0.6 59.7 56.3 0.7 1.7 2.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 1.7 2.1 1.9 0.7 61.8 58.4 0.4 1.4 2.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 0.9 1.1 1.5 0.6 59.6 56.6 -0.5 0.5 1.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 1.3 1.5 1.2 0.5 59.2 56.2 0.0 1.0 1.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 2.8 3.1 2.7 0.7 61.8 58.2 1.6 2.5 3.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 2.8 2.9 2.6 1.0 68.6 64.8 0.8 1.8 2.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 2.5 2.9 1.5 0.7 62.8 59.4 1.1 2.1 3.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 2.1 2.5 3.6 0.7 63.3 59.5 0.8 1.8 2.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 0.3 0.4 1.0 0.5 57.8 54.9 -0.8 0.0 0.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 2.3 2.7 3.7 0.7 62.6 59.0 1.0 2.0 2.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 -2.2 -2.1 -0.2 0.5 57.7 54.4 -4.0 -2.7 -1.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 2.4 2.7 3.5 0.6 61.4 57.8 1.0 2.0 3.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 1.8 2.3 3.7 0.7 63.8 60.1 0.6 1.5 2.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 2.2 2.6 3.6 0.7 63.1 59.4 1.0 1.9 2.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 1.8 2.0 2.5 0.6 60.7 57.4 0.6 1.5 2.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 2.5 2.8 2.7 0.6 60.4 57.1 1.3 2.2 3.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 1.7 1.8 1.2 0.4 57.9 55.4 0.3 1.3 2.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 2.8 3.0 3.3 0.5 59.0 55.8 1.2 2.4 3.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 42 58 100 1.5 1.7 2.3 1.1 69.6 65.4 -0.5 0.5 1.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.5 57.7 54.6 -1.6 -0.4 0.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 2.6 3.0 3.9 0.6 61.4 57.9 1.2 2.3 3.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------