***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2013.-10.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 9999.0 13.8 14.7 2.4 77.7 74.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 26 74 100 14.3 14.6 14.3 2.1 74.2 71.6 10.4 12.1 13.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 27 73 100 15.3 15.9 14.9 2.4 76.2 73.1 11.0 12.9 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 19 81 100 9.0 11.1 13.3 3.7 86.7 82.5 4.3 6.2 8.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 15.2 16.4 14.1 3.1 80.7 77.0 10.6 12.6 14.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 26 74 100 14.7 15.7 12.9 3.1 78.3 75.1 9.9 12.0 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 14.1 14.4 14.1 2.0 73.6 71.0 10.1 11.9 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 27 73 100 7.1 7.8 12.9 2.8 76.4 73.0 2.9 4.7 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 29 71 100 15.6 16.8 14.8 2.9 78.6 75.0 11.0 13.1 15.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 30 70 100 14.9 15.6 13.6 2.7 75.4 72.0 10.6 12.5 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 25 75 100 15.7 16.6 14.0 2.9 78.0 74.5 10.8 12.9 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 22 78 100 15.3 16.1 13.5 2.9 78.2 74.6 10.6 12.6 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 24 76 100 15.6 16.2 13.7 2.8 76.1 73.0 10.7 12.8 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 15.5 15.6 14.4 2.1 70.3 67.8 11.4 13.3 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 14 86 100 14.0 16.2 14.7 3.9 90.0 86.1 10.2 11.7 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 25 75 100 16.1 17.2 13.8 3.0 78.7 75.4 11.1 13.3 15.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 13.5 13.7 13.7 1.9 72.6 70.1 10.0 11.6 13.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 13.9 14.0 13.1 2.3 71.1 68.4 9.8 11.6 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 14.7 15.1 14.5 2.2 74.5 71.8 10.6 12.4 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 27 73 100 12.3 12.5 11.4 2.5 72.8 70.1 7.6 9.7 11.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 28 72 100 15.3 16.2 15.0 2.7 78.1 74.6 10.9 12.8 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 14.3 14.5 13.9 1.9 73.1 70.5 10.5 12.2 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 14.8 15.2 14.7 2.2 74.1 71.4 10.7 12.5 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 15.8 16.1 14.3 2.3 71.6 68.9 11.4 13.4 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 25 75 100 14.3 15.4 13.8 2.8 80.4 76.6 10.0 11.9 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 16 84 100 15.4 16.6 13.4 3.3 82.0 78.5 10.6 12.6 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 14.9 15.7 14.2 2.4 76.8 73.5 10.5 12.4 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 18 82 100 13.6 15.3 14.1 3.8 86.9 82.9 10.1 11.6 12.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 11.3 11.4 12.5 2.3 70.6 68.2 6.8 8.9 10.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 25 75 100 14.3 14.8 14.6 2.2 75.2 72.4 10.2 12.0 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------