***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.11.2013.-17.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 10.9 10.6 0.8 59.2 58.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 12.4 11.8 10.7 1.2 63.4 61.6 8.0 10.1 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 12.1 12.8 10.9 1.1 61.6 60.0 9.2 11.3 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 37 63 100 8.1 7.4 9.2 1.2 63.7 61.8 3.5 5.7 7.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 13.7 12.8 9.5 1.0 60.9 59.4 9.4 11.5 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 37 63 100 13.2 11.8 8.5 0.7 57.4 56.6 8.9 11.0 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 42 58 100 12.1 11.4 10.5 1.0 62.0 60.4 8.0 10.0 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 5.9 5.1 8.9 1.1 61.5 59.7 2.4 4.0 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 14.3 13.1 10.1 1.0 60.0 58.6 9.8 11.9 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 13.3 12.3 9.4 1.0 60.2 58.7 9.2 11.1 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 12.6 12.9 9.4 1.0 60.2 58.8 9.6 11.7 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 37 63 100 13.8 12.8 9.3 1.0 60.5 58.9 9.5 11.5 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 37 63 100 13.7 12.4 8.9 0.7 57.6 56.7 9.6 11.5 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 14.6 13.6 10.5 1.2 62.0 60.4 9.5 11.9 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 10.9 10.8 9.6 1.6 68.0 65.3 7.6 9.1 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 12.9 13.2 9.2 0.9 59.2 57.9 10.0 12.1 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 11.7 11.3 10.5 1.2 64.3 62.4 7.7 9.7 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 12.4 11.4 9.1 1.0 59.9 58.5 8.5 10.3 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 37 63 100 13.1 12.4 10.9 1.2 63.7 61.8 8.5 10.7 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 10.8 9.9 7.5 1.1 61.8 59.8 6.6 8.6 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 12.4 12.7 10.5 0.9 60.0 58.7 9.3 11.5 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 12.7 12.3 10.7 1.4 65.5 63.4 8.2 10.3 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 13.0 12.3 11.1 1.3 63.2 61.4 8.6 10.7 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 14.6 13.5 10.3 1.1 60.9 59.4 10.0 12.1 14.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 11.2 11.6 9.4 0.9 60.3 59.1 8.4 10.4 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 12.7 11.7 8.9 0.9 60.0 58.4 9.1 10.7 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 12.0 12.3 10.0 0.8 58.6 57.7 9.1 11.2 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 11.3 10.9 9.5 1.4 64.7 62.5 8.1 9.6 11.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 10.3 9.3 8.5 1.1 60.6 58.9 6.1 8.1 9.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 12.4 11.7 10.8 1.1 62.3 60.7 8.2 10.2 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------