***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.11.2013.-24.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 8.3 8.2 -0.3 46.4 47.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 9.2 8.6 8.3 0.0 50.5 50.3 6.5 8.5 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 7.0 9.3 8.4 -0.2 47.8 48.1 7.4 9.6 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 0.6 2.9 6.3 -0.5 44.4 46.1 1.3 3.7 6.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 6.7 8.7 6.8 -0.5 44.1 45.6 7.3 9.5 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 5.7 7.4 5.7 -1.0 38.7 42.1 6.7 8.8 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 9.0 8.3 8.1 0.0 49.9 49.9 6.4 8.3 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 -0.1 1.6 6.0 -0.7 42.2 44.4 0.5 2.4 4.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 7.4 9.6 7.5 -0.5 44.9 46.1 7.9 10.3 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 6.4 8.5 6.7 -0.6 43.1 44.9 7.1 9.4 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 6.5 8.7 6.6 -0.6 42.9 44.7 7.3 9.7 11.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 59 41 0 100 6.6 8.6 6.5 -0.7 42.4 44.5 7.3 9.6 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 6.8 8.5 6.1 -0.9 39.9 42.9 7.6 9.8 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 11.2 9.7 7.9 -0.3 47.2 47.6 7.7 10.1 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 5.6 7.5 6.6 -0.3 46.0 47.6 5.9 8.0 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 7.3 9.3 6.3 -0.7 41.7 43.9 8.2 10.3 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 8.6 8.2 8.1 0.2 52.2 51.6 6.1 7.9 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 5.5 7.2 6.4 -0.7 42.6 44.6 6.0 8.0 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 9.6 8.8 8.5 0.0 50.4 50.1 6.7 8.8 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 3.3 4.9 4.5 -0.9 39.7 43.2 4.0 6.2 8.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 7.0 9.3 7.9 -0.4 45.8 46.7 7.6 9.8 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 9.1 8.7 8.3 0.2 52.4 51.7 6.4 8.5 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 9.5 8.7 8.6 0.0 49.7 49.5 6.7 8.8 10.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 7.6 9.8 7.7 -0.4 45.7 46.6 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 59 41 0 100 6.2 8.2 6.7 -0.5 44.3 45.8 6.9 8.8 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 6.6 8.1 6.0 -0.8 40.0 43.6 7.3 9.2 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 7.0 9.1 7.4 -0.4 45.1 46.2 7.6 9.6 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 5.6 8.0 6.6 -0.4 45.0 46.5 6.3 8.7 10.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 3.2 5.0 5.6 -0.8 41.6 44.2 3.8 6.1 8.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 9.3 8.5 8.3 -0.1 49.3 49.4 6.6 8.5 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------