***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.11.2013.-01.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 8.0 7.1 0.3 53.3 52.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 8.1 8.2 7.0 0.6 56.7 55.1 5.9 7.6 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 9.5 9.3 7.3 0.4 54.8 53.7 7.0 8.8 10.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 3.2 2.8 5.3 0.3 52.8 51.5 0.8 2.5 4.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 9.4 9.0 5.8 0.3 52.6 51.7 6.9 8.7 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 5.9 8.0 4.9 0.1 51.1 50.2 6.2 7.9 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 8.1 8.1 6.9 0.5 56.2 54.5 5.8 7.5 9.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 2.6 2.2 5.3 0.2 51.8 51.5 0.4 2.0 3.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 10.0 9.6 6.5 0.3 52.9 52.1 7.4 9.3 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 9.1 8.7 5.9 0.3 52.6 51.9 6.7 8.5 10.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 9.7 9.1 5.8 0.2 52.2 51.6 6.9 8.9 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 9.6 8.9 5.7 0.1 51.3 51.2 7.0 8.8 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 6.4 8.8 5.2 0.0 50.2 50.0 6.7 8.8 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 9.6 9.7 7.0 0.7 56.8 55.5 7.1 9.0 10.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 7.5 7.3 5.5 0.3 53.8 52.2 5.5 6.9 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 10.2 9.5 5.5 0.1 51.5 50.8 7.4 9.3 11.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 7.5 7.7 6.9 0.7 58.1 55.9 5.2 6.9 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 7.0 6.7 5.7 0.3 53.2 52.7 5.0 6.5 7.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 8.5 8.6 7.3 0.6 56.9 55.4 6.2 7.9 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 6.1 5.6 4.0 0.2 51.9 51.7 3.6 5.4 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 9.5 9.2 6.9 0.3 53.2 52.3 7.0 8.8 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 8.1 8.4 7.2 0.8 58.9 56.5 5.8 7.5 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 8.5 8.6 7.5 0.7 57.1 55.7 6.2 7.9 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 9.8 9.7 6.8 0.5 54.9 54.0 7.4 9.2 10.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 8.4 8.0 5.7 0.2 52.1 51.0 6.1 7.8 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 9.0 8.3 5.1 0.0 49.8 49.9 6.7 8.3 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 9.5 9.1 6.3 0.2 52.4 51.4 7.0 8.8 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 8.0 7.6 5.6 0.3 53.4 52.0 5.7 7.3 8.8 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 6.2 5.9 5.0 0.3 53.2 52.7 3.7 5.5 7.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 8.3 8.3 7.1 0.5 55.7 54.3 6.0 7.7 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------