***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2013.-01.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 10.7 10.1 0.8 63.7 59.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 10.0 10.9 10.1 1.0 66.7 62.5 8.3 9.6 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 11.2 11.9 10.4 0.9 65.2 61.2 9.3 10.7 12.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 5.0 6.0 8.5 1.2 68.8 63.9 3.2 4.5 5.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 11.1 11.8 9.1 1.0 65.1 60.6 9.2 10.6 11.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 10.5 10.9 8.0 0.7 61.2 56.7 8.5 9.9 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 9.9 10.6 9.9 0.9 65.6 61.6 8.1 9.4 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 3.7 4.1 8.2 0.8 63.4 58.7 2.2 3.3 4.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 11.7 12.4 9.7 0.9 64.2 59.9 9.7 11.1 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 11.0 11.4 8.9 0.8 62.7 58.4 9.0 10.4 11.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 11.4 12.0 9.0 0.9 63.5 59.1 9.3 10.8 12.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 11.2 11.8 8.8 0.8 63.6 58.8 9.2 10.6 12.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 11.4 11.6 8.5 0.7 60.5 56.2 9.2 10.7 12.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 11.7 12.3 9.9 0.9 64.2 60.2 9.6 11.1 12.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 39 61 100 10.3 10.6 9.1 1.4 72.6 67.3 7.7 8.9 10.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 11.8 12.4 8.7 0.8 62.9 58.4 9.8 11.3 12.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 41 59 100 10.3 10.3 9.8 1.0 67.6 63.3 7.8 9.0 10.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 9.6 9.9 8.6 0.7 61.2 57.2 7.9 9.1 10.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 10.4 11.3 10.3 1.0 66.9 62.7 8.6 9.9 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 8.1 8.4 6.8 0.7 61.7 57.2 6.0 7.5 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 11.3 11.9 10.1 0.9 64.3 60.1 9.3 10.7 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 11.1 11.1 10.0 1.1 68.3 64.2 8.3 9.6 10.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 10.5 11.3 10.5 1.0 66.5 62.4 8.6 10.0 11.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 11.8 12.4 9.8 0.9 63.1 59.1 9.8 11.3 12.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 10.2 10.8 8.9 0.9 64.3 60.1 8.4 9.7 11.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 10.7 11.3 8.3 0.8 64.3 58.9 8.8 10.2 11.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 11.1 11.6 9.5 0.7 62.5 58.7 9.1 10.5 11.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 9.7 10.7 8.9 1.3 69.7 64.7 8.1 9.3 10.4 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 7.7 8.0 7.9 0.7 61.2 57.0 5.8 7.1 8.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 10.1 10.8 10.2 0.9 65.8 61.8 8.3 9.6 10.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------