***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2013.-10.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 9999.0 2.4 6.9 52.5 38.9 34.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 4.6 6.3 7.6 60.2 42.0 36.3 4.3 8.6 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 3.7 4.7 6.7 48.9 35.8 31.6 4.1 8.1 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 3.4 3.6 6.9 42.1 32.5 27.7 3.6 8.4 16.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 67 33 0 100 3.3 4.1 7.7 46.9 35.4 30.3 3.7 7.4 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 3.1 5.6 9.3 58.5 46.1 36.1 3.5 6.4 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 3.9 5.9 8.0 64.0 45.3 39.0 3.3 7.1 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 63 37 0 100 5.2 7.0 9.3 53.1 38.6 33.3 5.3 11.8 22.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 65 35 0 100 3.2 3.9 7.4 46.3 35.2 30.1 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 3.8 5.0 9.1 52.3 38.4 32.8 4.0 7.7 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 63 37 0 100 3.5 4.3 7.4 45.9 36.3 30.7 3.7 7.2 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 65 35 0 100 3.9 5.4 7.8 48.6 38.0 32.1 4.4 8.2 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 66 34 0 100 4.0 6.3 8.3 51.4 41.3 33.0 4.5 8.7 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 5.4 7.4 8.9 55.0 37.4 32.7 6.3 10.9 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 74 26 0 100 2.2 2.5 6.7 41.0 32.1 26.9 2.7 6.3 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 64 36 0 100 3.4 4.7 7.6 48.1 39.1 32.3 3.5 7.4 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 4.0 7.2 8.6 67.0 47.5 39.4 3.8 8.0 14.5 30 Palic 37000G16 64 36 0 100 5.0 7.6 10.7 59.8 41.8 35.8 5.5 9.9 15.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 3.4 4.5 7.3 56.0 38.5 33.6 3.4 7.3 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 5.5 8.3 13.9 63.8 43.6 38.3 5.4 10.7 18.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 66 34 0 100 3.0 3.7 6.8 45.5 35.0 30.3 3.3 6.8 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 3.8 5.8 8.6 61.2 42.5 35.5 3.7 7.7 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 67 33 0 100 3.3 4.2 7.2 51.5 35.2 31.2 3.7 7.6 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 65 35 0 100 4.0 5.7 8.7 54.8 39.1 33.8 4.5 8.4 13.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 65 35 0 100 3.1 3.9 7.5 49.3 36.5 32.1 3.2 7.2 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 3.6 5.0 7.9 48.1 40.0 32.0 3.6 7.5 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 62 38 0 100 3.5 4.9 7.6 54.4 39.6 34.7 3.6 7.4 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 71 29 0 100 2.1 2.4 6.7 41.8 33.4 27.5 2.4 5.8 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 62 38 0 100 6.8 10.6 11.8 62.0 42.8 36.7 7.1 13.7 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 3.4 4.6 7.2 56.5 39.8 34.6 3.3 7.1 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------