***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.11.2013.-17.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 9999.0 7.0 9.0 66.3 49.6 38.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 3.8 7.6 8.9 66.9 49.3 38.3 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 5.2 11.1 10.0 73.6 52.3 40.4 5.1 10.2 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 66 34 0 100 5.3 10.7 9.9 67.9 49.5 37.2 6.1 10.9 17.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 6.0 11.7 10.6 74.7 52.3 40.1 6.0 10.9 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 5.7 12.0 11.7 78.2 54.4 43.1 5.4 10.3 17.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 4.1 7.3 8.5 63.6 48.3 37.8 4.2 7.7 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 7.9 14.4 11.4 70.0 51.2 40.6 7.9 13.7 21.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 5.4 11.0 11.2 77.5 53.6 41.0 5.4 9.9 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 6.0 12.6 11.9 75.8 53.3 41.8 5.7 11.1 18.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 6.2 12.7 10.3 76.5 53.7 41.4 6.0 11.2 18.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 5.8 12.1 10.2 71.8 52.2 41.1 5.4 11.0 19.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 5.9 11.7 10.8 74.0 52.9 42.3 5.4 10.5 17.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 7.4 14.1 12.8 77.6 53.1 42.4 7.0 12.7 20.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 71 29 0 100 3.3 7.5 9.7 62.1 46.9 34.2 3.9 8.5 15.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 6.0 11.7 10.4 74.7 53.0 41.5 5.7 10.7 17.4 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 4.4 7.5 8.4 63.9 47.5 36.2 4.7 8.2 12.7 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 6.4 11.4 13.2 73.0 51.0 41.1 6.0 11.0 18.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 5.1 10.2 9.5 70.8 50.9 39.8 5.2 9.9 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 7.3 11.0 14.0 59.6 44.4 36.8 7.1 13.1 21.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 60 40 0 100 5.3 11.4 10.4 75.4 53.5 40.6 5.5 10.1 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 4.7 8.6 9.3 68.0 48.9 38.8 4.6 8.9 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 5.4 10.6 10.6 75.9 53.2 42.0 5.3 9.7 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 5.4 10.6 12.3 77.1 53.2 42.2 4.7 9.5 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 4.7 8.6 10.3 68.2 50.3 39.5 4.7 8.5 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 4.7 8.3 9.7 61.7 46.1 36.1 4.7 9.6 16.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 4.3 8.1 9.7 65.8 49.0 38.8 4.5 8.4 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 65 35 0 100 4.1 8.9 9.9 68.0 49.3 36.7 4.4 9.1 16.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 9.2 15.1 14.0 68.2 48.5 39.6 9.0 15.9 25.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 3.8 7.9 9.0 67.0 49.6 38.7 3.9 7.9 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------