***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.11.2013.-24.11.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 6.3 12.8 97.3 62.3 51.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 52 48 0 100 3.2 8.5 11.8 89.3 59.2 48.4 2.6 5.9 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 9.6 11.0 13.0 99.2 62.5 51.8 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 5.9 15.1 14.7 96.0 61.7 50.3 5.4 10.3 17.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.9 13.1 15.3 105.4 64.9 53.6 3.9 7.9 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 6.7 15.0 14.6 91.1 58.8 48.6 6.3 11.4 18.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 8.7 8.2 11.6 86.7 58.1 47.3 2.9 6.1 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 21.1 23.4 15.9 99.2 62.4 52.8 8.2 15.5 26.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 10.5 13.5 15.6 109.4 66.2 55.3 3.6 7.6 13.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 11.2 13.8 16.4 106.1 65.0 55.2 3.7 8.0 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 5.7 15.7 14.7 103.3 64.3 53.2 5.0 9.8 16.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 5.4 14.9 14.0 96.5 61.5 50.9 4.5 9.7 17.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 6.5 15.6 14.4 93.0 59.3 48.7 5.9 11.4 19.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 16.0 17.0 15.3 97.3 61.2 51.9 6.0 11.8 19.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 5.3 14.5 13.7 85.5 58.3 46.3 4.6 10.3 19.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 5.5 13.8 14.0 95.3 60.8 49.7 5.3 9.9 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 9.7 9.1 11.3 84.2 57.6 46.4 3.7 7.1 11.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 13.6 15.8 17.6 102.3 63.2 54.5 4.8 10.0 17.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 4.4 10.5 12.1 91.9 60.1 49.4 3.9 7.6 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 16.1 15.5 20.3 91.2 58.9 50.8 4.9 11.0 20.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 10.0 12.2 14.3 105.5 64.9 53.8 3.8 7.4 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 10.8 10.4 11.6 84.6 57.4 46.9 4.5 8.2 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 9.4 10.1 12.8 95.1 60.9 50.8 3.6 7.0 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 12.2 14.5 15.4 102.4 63.4 53.9 4.0 8.7 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 8.9 10.3 14.6 99.3 62.8 52.0 3.6 6.9 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 56 44 0 100 6.1 15.2 14.2 90.9 58.4 48.3 5.6 11.4 19.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 8.8 9.9 13.7 96.0 61.7 51.1 3.5 6.7 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 5.2 12.8 14.0 90.2 59.5 47.7 4.8 9.4 15.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 21.0 23.0 18.8 98.5 61.7 53.2 8.1 15.6 26.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 9.1 9.3 12.0 91.5 60.0 49.3 3.3 6.6 11.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------