***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.11.2013.-01.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 9999.0 5.1 12.1 106.6 65.6 50.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 3.1 8.3 10.2 95.3 61.6 49.3 2.9 5.7 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 4.1 11.1 11.6 99.6 63.0 49.8 3.6 7.1 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 6.0 13.5 12.1 94.5 61.2 46.5 5.9 10.0 15.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 4.3 11.1 12.1 96.7 62.0 48.0 4.0 7.6 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 9.3 10.0 12.2 98.3 62.1 46.1 3.8 6.9 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 3.1 8.1 10.0 94.6 61.0 47.6 3.2 5.8 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 7.2 14.1 12.3 95.9 61.3 48.7 7.1 11.0 15.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.4 9.0 12.2 96.1 61.8 48.9 3.1 6.1 10.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 5.3 11.8 12.4 93.4 60.5 48.5 5.1 8.8 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 4.1 11.2 11.3 99.3 62.8 48.6 3.8 7.4 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 5.4 13.9 11.1 100.5 63.2 49.2 5.1 9.3 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 11.5 12.8 11.9 101.4 63.4 48.7 5.1 8.8 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 5.1 12.8 13.0 94.4 60.6 49.9 4.6 9.1 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 5.7 14.7 11.3 89.3 59.8 45.2 5.2 10.5 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 4.4 11.4 11.3 99.4 62.7 47.7 4.1 7.7 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 3.2 8.1 9.4 90.8 59.9 47.6 3.3 6.0 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 6.3 13.2 13.6 89.3 59.1 48.2 5.9 10.2 15.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 3.2 9.4 10.6 96.8 62.1 50.0 2.9 6.1 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 6.9 14.7 16.1 90.3 59.7 48.2 6.3 11.1 17.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 3.8 10.5 12.1 99.8 63.1 49.8 3.6 6.9 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 3.6 9.6 10.1 92.8 60.8 49.4 3.1 6.5 11.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 3.1 9.3 11.4 98.2 62.3 50.3 2.7 5.8 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 5.7 12.9 12.6 91.4 59.9 48.7 5.5 9.6 15.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 3.5 10.5 13.2 105.3 65.2 50.3 3.0 6.2 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 3.8 9.6 12.2 101.9 64.2 49.4 3.7 6.4 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 4.0 11.8 13.0 108.6 66.2 50.6 3.5 7.0 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 5.6 12.7 11.2 90.6 59.8 45.2 5.7 9.7 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 8.8 18.8 14.6 87.5 58.4 47.5 8.1 14.6 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 55 45 0 100 3.2 9.0 10.8 99.5 63.0 49.5 3.0 5.8 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------