***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.10.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2013.-01.12.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 57 43 0 100 9999.0 26.1 40.8 79.6 42.6 40.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 29.3 33.6 38.5 77.3 39.7 38.7 29.2 40.9 54.3 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 34.0 42.2 41.3 79.3 41.3 39.7 36.1 48.5 62.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 65.1 45.6 43.6 73.8 37.1 36.5 42.1 56.8 73.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 54.8 41.9 45.7 79.3 41.5 40.2 35.7 48.1 62.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 35.1 41.2 47.8 80.6 41.4 39.7 35.4 47.5 61.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 44.4 32.2 38.1 76.5 39.9 38.7 28.3 38.7 50.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 52.3 60.6 49.0 77.9 40.2 39.1 52.7 72.2 94.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 32.1 38.6 46.5 80.8 42.6 41.1 32.2 43.7 56.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 38.8 46.1 49.9 80.6 42.1 40.7 39.6 52.0 65.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 57.9 44.0 43.7 79.2 41.7 40.2 37.4 50.6 65.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 39.0 46.1 43.1 77.2 40.5 39.2 39.7 55.0 73.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 38.9 46.1 45.4 78.3 40.9 39.5 39.2 54.3 71.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 47.6 55.5 50.1 80.4 40.9 39.6 49.0 63.1 78.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 61 39 0 100 34.7 37.8 41.4 68.3 33.3 32.8 37.8 54.5 74.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 30.8 36.9 43.3 77.5 40.5 39.1 30.6 45.7 63.9 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 28.4 33.0 37.8 75.8 39.1 37.8 29.2 40.4 53.2 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 43.0 51.1 55.1 80.5 41.9 40.6 43.8 57.5 72.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 33.0 38.1 39.5 78.1 39.7 38.6 33.8 45.6 59.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 46.0 50.9 64.3 75.2 37.1 36.9 47.0 64.6 84.7 29 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 31.7 38.8 43.6 80.1 42.2 40.6 32.7 44.5 57.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 31.9 36.4 39.6 75.7 38.0 37.0 32.8 45.1 58.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 32.9 38.7 41.9 79.3 40.0 38.6 34.5 45.0 56.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 38.1 47.2 49.0 80.8 42.4 40.7 39.7 53.7 69.2 28 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 28.3 34.7 45.6 79.2 42.0 40.1 28.5 40.7 55.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 34.8 39.1 44.1 73.6 37.9 37.2 35.3 49.6 65.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 30.6 37.8 43.9 80.0 42.9 40.6 31.5 42.3 54.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 32.8 36.0 41.9 71.4 35.5 34.8 34.2 48.3 64.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 63.6 73.2 59.1 78.5 40.0 39.2 65.7 84.8 105.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 28.7 33.7 39.0 77.8 40.3 39.0 29.2 40.3 53.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------