***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2019.-01.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 12 88 100 4.1 5.6 6.7 3.0 90.9 83.1 1.5 2.6 3.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 13 87 100 3.6 5.2 6.2 2.8 90.5 82.1 0.8 1.9 3.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 12 88 100 5.5 7.2 6.6 2.9 91.6 84.1 2.8 3.9 4.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 11 89 100 0.6 1.9 3.5 2.4 87.9 80.5 -2.6 -1.4 -0.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 12 88 100 3.0 4.4 4.7 2.8 90.5 83.4 0.6 1.5 2.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 15 85 100 2.3 3.6 2.3 2.4 88.3 81.5 -0.2 0.8 1.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 15 85 100 3.5 5.1 6.3 2.9 90.7 82.1 0.9 1.9 2.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 17 83 100 -1.7 -0.3 2.7 2.6 88.8 82.3 -4.4 -3.3 -2.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 14 86 100 3.8 5.1 4.7 2.6 89.8 82.6 1.3 2.3 3.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 16 84 100 3.2 4.5 3.3 2.6 89.2 82.3 0.7 1.7 2.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 16 84 100 2.9 4.3 4.0 2.6 89.7 83.0 0.4 1.4 2.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 17 83 100 2.0 3.5 3.5 2.7 90.0 83.5 -0.5 0.5 1.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 16 84 100 2.5 3.8 3.2 2.6 89.4 82.7 0.0 1.0 1.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 11 89 100 3.8 5.0 4.7 2.7 90.3 82.3 1.6 2.5 3.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 20 80 100 3.2 4.1 4.3 1.9 84.9 77.4 0.8 1.8 2.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 14 86 100 3.7 5.0 3.4 2.6 88.8 82.0 1.1 2.1 3.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 16 84 100 3.2 4.6 5.9 2.7 89.6 81.0 0.8 1.8 2.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 15 85 100 1.2 2.3 2.9 2.7 89.6 82.5 -0.8 0.0 0.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 14 86 100 3.5 5.0 6.2 2.8 90.9 82.7 1.0 2.0 2.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 15 85 100 -0.8 0.9 1.9 2.8 88.7 81.9 -4.0 -2.7 -1.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 12 88 100 3.6 5.0 6.0 2.8 91.0 83.6 1.0 2.0 3.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 17 83 100 2.9 4.2 5.9 2.6 89.8 81.2 0.6 1.5 2.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 14 86 100 3.2 4.6 6.1 2.7 90.9 83.0 1.0 1.9 2.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 12 88 100 2.8 4.1 4.4 2.7 90.7 83.3 0.6 1.5 2.3 29 Valjevo 28500G11 0 11 89 100 3.7 5.0 5.7 2.9 90.8 83.2 1.3 2.2 3.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 13 87 100 2.8 4.2 3.1 2.7 90.2 83.7 0.3 1.3 2.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 12 88 100 4.2 6.0 6.4 3.1 91.2 83.1 1.2 2.4 3.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 15 85 100 2.0 2.9 3.5 2.2 85.8 78.6 -0.5 0.5 1.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 15 85 100 1.4 3.0 2.5 2.7 88.9 81.8 -1.6 -0.4 0.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 15 85 100 3.9 5.7 6.4 2.9 90.9 82.7 1.2 2.3 3.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------