***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2019.-10.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 15.8 21.6 19.4 6.4 98.2 97.2 10.5 12.4 14.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 0 100 100 15.0 19.1 19.0 5.8 96.7 94.8 10.4 12.1 13.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 16.2 20.7 19.6 6.0 96.6 95.2 11.0 12.9 14.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 9.6 15.5 16.4 6.7 98.3 97.7 4.3 6.2 8.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 16.0 20.7 18.1 6.2 96.7 95.9 10.6 12.6 14.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 15.7 19.5 16.7 6.0 94.2 93.6 9.9 12.0 14.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 0 100 100 15.0 19.0 18.7 5.6 96.3 94.5 10.1 11.9 13.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 8.0 9.8 15.7 4.7 88.7 87.9 2.9 4.7 6.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 16.7 21.4 18.7 5.9 96.3 95.4 11.0 13.1 15.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 1 99 100 15.9 18.9 17.3 5.5 92.7 91.7 10.6 12.5 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 16.6 20.5 18.4 5.8 94.6 93.8 10.8 12.9 14.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 16.1 18.6 16.5 4.9 90.7 90.0 10.6 12.6 14.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 16.5 19.5 17.9 5.3 91.9 91.3 10.7 12.8 14.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 0 100 100 16.7 19.7 18.5 5.2 92.8 91.2 11.4 13.3 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 14.4 18.3 17.3 5.5 97.2 96.4 10.2 11.7 13.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 17.1 21.0 17.8 5.8 94.4 93.7 11.1 13.3 15.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 14.3 17.7 18.1 5.3 95.8 93.5 10.0 11.6 13.1 30 Palic 37000G16 0 1 99 100 14.9 17.1 16.5 5.0 89.9 88.8 9.8 11.6 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 0 100 100 15.6 19.6 19.2 5.7 96.2 94.2 10.6 12.4 14.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 1 99 100 13.3 14.1 13.9 3.8 82.8 82.1 7.6 9.7 11.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 16.2 20.8 19.2 5.8 96.4 95.4 10.9 12.8 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 0 100 100 15.1 18.4 18.0 5.0 95.2 92.9 10.5 12.2 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 15.8 19.4 19.0 5.3 94.8 92.9 10.7 12.5 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 17.0 20.5 18.7 5.5 93.6 92.2 11.4 13.4 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 15.1 20.2 18.4 6.3 97.7 96.9 10.0 11.9 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 0 100 100 15.9 17.6 15.1 4.1 87.4 86.7 10.6 12.6 14.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 15.9 21.0 18.8 6.2 97.4 96.4 10.5 12.4 14.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 14.1 18.0 17.1 6.4 97.5 96.8 10.1 11.6 12.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 2 98 100 12.4 14.0 15.5 4.4 86.2 85.3 6.8 8.9 10.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 0 100 100 15.1 19.5 19.2 5.9 96.9 95.3 10.2 12.0 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------