***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.11.2019.-17.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 13.9 15.0 13.4 2.6 77.5 70.5 9.2 11.4 13.3 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 12.7 13.8 13.5 2.6 77.6 70.3 8.0 10.1 12.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 13.9 14.7 13.7 2.5 75.3 68.9 9.2 11.3 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 32 68 100 8.3 8.4 9.8 1.9 70.7 66.0 3.5 5.7 7.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 32 68 100 14.0 14.3 11.7 2.2 72.6 67.7 9.4 11.5 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 13.7 14.5 11.4 2.8 77.7 71.3 8.9 11.0 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 29 71 100 12.5 13.6 13.3 2.7 78.0 70.6 8.0 10.0 11.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 29 71 100 6.0 6.4 11.3 2.4 74.0 69.4 2.4 4.0 5.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 14.4 14.9 12.7 2.3 73.3 68.1 9.8 11.9 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 13.5 13.9 12.1 2.5 74.1 69.1 9.2 11.1 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 14.1 14.6 12.4 2.3 73.3 68.4 9.6 11.7 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 27 73 100 14.1 14.6 11.9 2.5 74.7 69.9 9.5 11.5 13.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 20 80 100 14.3 14.7 12.6 2.8 76.7 71.5 9.6 11.5 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 14.8 15.3 13.2 2.4 73.5 67.7 9.5 11.9 14.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 34 66 100 10.9 11.1 11.1 1.8 71.4 66.2 7.6 9.1 10.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 27 73 100 14.8 15.3 12.1 2.6 75.2 69.9 10.0 12.1 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 12.1 13.0 13.0 2.5 76.9 69.7 7.7 9.7 11.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 30 70 100 12.6 13.0 11.9 2.6 74.2 69.2 8.5 10.3 12.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 13.4 14.3 13.6 2.6 76.9 69.8 8.5 10.7 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 28 72 100 11.0 11.5 10.4 2.6 74.7 70.4 6.6 8.6 10.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 14.0 14.4 13.1 2.2 73.1 67.7 9.3 11.5 13.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 29 71 100 13.0 13.7 13.0 2.4 75.9 69.1 8.2 10.3 12.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 13.2 13.9 13.7 2.5 75.3 68.6 8.6 10.7 12.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 14.8 15.4 13.2 2.5 74.1 68.5 10.0 12.1 14.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 30 70 100 12.8 13.3 11.9 2.3 74.4 68.6 8.4 10.4 12.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 18 82 100 13.1 13.6 11.5 2.6 77.3 72.8 9.1 10.7 12.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 29 71 100 13.8 14.8 13.0 2.6 77.7 70.6 9.1 11.2 13.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 11.5 11.5 10.6 1.9 70.7 66.1 8.1 9.6 11.1 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 10.5 10.9 11.4 2.5 73.6 69.1 6.1 8.1 9.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 12.7 13.7 13.5 2.7 77.7 70.4 8.2 10.2 12.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------