***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.11.2019.-24.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 6.5 11.0 10.2 1.4 65.0 60.0 6.9 9.1 11.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 9.4 10.3 10.2 1.4 65.3 59.8 6.5 8.5 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 7.0 11.3 10.5 1.3 63.3 58.6 7.4 9.6 11.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 4.7 5.1 7.3 0.9 59.9 56.8 1.3 3.7 6.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 10.4 10.8 8.5 1.0 60.6 57.2 7.3 9.5 11.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 6.3 10.2 8.1 1.1 61.5 58.7 6.7 8.8 10.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 51 49 0 100 6.1 10.1 10.2 1.4 65.6 60.0 6.4 8.3 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 0.2 3.5 8.3 1.0 60.6 57.3 0.5 2.4 4.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 7.5 11.8 9.3 1.1 61.1 57.3 7.9 10.3 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 6.7 10.9 8.9 1.1 61.2 57.6 7.1 9.4 11.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 10.7 11.3 8.9 1.2 62.1 58.1 7.3 9.7 11.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 6.9 11.2 8.7 1.1 61.7 58.0 7.3 9.6 11.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 10.8 11.6 8.5 1.3 63.3 60.0 7.6 9.8 11.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 7.2 11.6 9.8 1.1 60.4 56.5 7.7 10.1 12.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 8.8 8.9 7.7 0.7 57.4 55.6 5.9 8.0 10.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 11.3 12.0 8.6 1.3 63.2 59.2 8.2 10.3 12.4 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 5.7 9.5 10.0 1.3 64.5 59.0 6.1 7.9 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 5.5 9.3 9.1 1.2 61.2 57.8 6.0 8.0 9.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 9.7 10.5 10.4 1.4 64.4 59.2 6.7 8.8 10.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 8.7 7.5 7.3 1.0 60.1 58.5 4.0 6.2 8.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 7.2 11.2 9.8 1.1 61.1 57.3 7.6 9.8 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 6.0 10.1 9.9 1.2 63.0 58.2 6.4 8.5 10.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 9.7 10.2 10.6 1.2 62.4 57.8 6.7 8.8 10.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 7.5 11.9 9.9 1.2 61.7 57.5 8.0 10.3 12.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 52 48 0 100 6.5 10.3 8.6 1.1 62.3 58.5 6.9 8.8 10.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 36 64 100 11.4 10.6 8.2 1.1 62.3 60.0 7.3 9.2 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 7.2 11.5 9.8 1.4 65.3 60.2 7.6 9.6 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 9.6 9.9 7.6 0.9 59.0 56.3 6.3 8.7 10.9 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 8.7 7.5 8.5 1.1 60.5 57.9 3.8 6.1 8.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 6.3 10.3 10.3 1.4 65.5 60.1 6.6 8.5 10.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------