***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.11.2019.-01.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 32 68 100 10.1 9.7 8.8 1.7 67.1 62.5 6.1 7.9 9.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 9.5 9.0 8.6 1.4 64.8 60.5 5.9 7.6 9.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 10.9 10.5 9.2 1.6 65.8 61.5 7.0 8.8 10.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 34 66 100 4.6 4.5 6.4 1.8 68.8 64.4 0.8 2.5 4.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 10.8 10.6 7.4 1.7 67.2 62.8 6.9 8.7 10.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 10.0 9.8 7.1 2.0 67.6 63.0 6.2 7.9 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 9.5 9.0 8.6 1.4 65.1 60.7 5.8 7.5 9.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 3.8 3.5 7.1 1.7 65.9 62.2 0.4 2.0 3.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 34 66 100 11.4 11.0 8.1 1.7 66.0 61.8 7.4 9.3 11.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 10.6 10.1 7.6 1.7 65.5 61.7 6.7 8.5 10.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 11.2 11.0 7.7 1.8 67.7 63.1 6.9 8.9 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 10.9 10.7 7.5 1.8 67.8 63.6 7.0 8.8 10.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 11.3 11.0 7.2 2.0 68.4 64.0 6.7 8.8 10.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 6.7 10.2 8.3 1.2 60.9 58.0 7.1 9.0 10.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 8.6 8.5 6.9 1.7 68.3 64.5 5.5 6.9 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 11.7 11.5 7.4 2.0 68.7 63.8 7.4 9.3 11.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 8.8 8.1 8.3 1.2 62.6 59.0 5.2 6.9 8.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 8.2 7.7 7.7 1.6 63.9 60.6 5.0 6.5 7.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 34 66 100 9.9 9.4 8.9 1.4 64.3 60.2 6.2 7.9 9.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 33 67 100 7.6 6.9 5.9 1.4 63.4 60.9 3.6 5.4 7.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 11.0 10.6 8.6 1.6 66.0 61.8 7.0 8.8 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 36 64 100 9.4 8.6 8.2 1.0 60.8 57.7 5.8 7.5 9.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 34 66 100 9.9 9.2 9.1 1.3 62.8 59.2 6.2 7.9 9.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 34 66 100 11.3 10.7 8.4 1.5 63.7 60.1 7.4 9.2 10.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 32 68 100 9.9 9.5 7.4 1.7 67.1 62.9 6.1 7.8 9.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 10.4 10.2 7.0 1.9 69.4 65.3 6.7 8.3 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 30 70 100 11.1 10.6 8.3 1.6 66.8 62.3 7.0 8.8 10.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 9.2 9.1 6.7 1.8 68.3 64.0 5.7 7.3 8.8 29 Zajecar 36700G16 0 33 67 100 7.6 6.9 7.1 1.5 63.3 60.5 3.7 5.5 7.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 9.7 9.3 8.7 1.5 65.8 61.3 6.0 7.7 9.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------