***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.11.2019.-10.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 10.8 16.3 11.6 118.9 70.3 60.7 4.9 9.0 14.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 44 56 100 16.2 20.5 13.0 141.6 75.7 64.7 4.3 8.6 14.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 11.0 12.4 8.9 94.8 62.9 51.4 4.1 8.1 13.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 11.5 8.7 8.0 64.2 50.6 45.2 3.6 8.4 16.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 10.0 8.7 7.6 70.8 54.2 47.4 3.7 7.4 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 3.4 5.2 5.0 49.4 43.8 36.1 3.5 6.4 10.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 44 56 100 14.3 19.5 13.6 149.1 77.3 66.2 3.3 7.1 12.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 16.8 17.0 10.8 87.1 59.3 52.8 5.3 11.8 22.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 9.5 8.8 8.1 78.6 57.2 48.3 3.6 7.0 11.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 10.3 9.4 8.8 76.9 56.1 47.8 4.0 7.7 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 4.0 7.1 6.7 60.1 49.5 42.0 3.7 7.2 12.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 10.8 9.4 8.0 72.8 54.3 48.0 4.4 8.2 13.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 64 36 0 100 4.1 5.7 4.9 42.8 38.9 33.6 4.5 8.7 14.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 6.7 16.5 11.2 99.8 64.3 50.7 6.3 10.9 17.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 8.9 5.5 6.2 50.9 46.9 42.2 2.7 6.3 12.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 3.8 6.2 5.7 52.5 45.5 37.6 3.5 7.4 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 40 60 100 16.5 21.6 14.3 148.7 77.2 67.8 3.8 8.0 14.5 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 5.9 15.0 11.6 99.4 64.1 52.3 5.5 9.9 15.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 9.8 16.8 12.0 129.9 72.9 61.1 3.4 7.3 13.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 13.7 19.8 15.7 112.6 68.1 61.2 5.4 10.7 18.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 9.2 9.3 8.5 83.0 58.8 49.4 3.3 6.8 11.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 15.3 18.7 14.4 141.7 75.7 66.2 3.7 7.7 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 10.6 14.9 10.9 115.7 69.3 56.6 3.7 7.6 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 4.6 11.6 9.3 87.5 60.2 46.7 4.5 8.4 13.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 9.5 13.2 11.3 102.6 65.4 59.0 3.2 7.2 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 85 15 100 9.3 10.4 9.2 86.1 60.0 53.3 3.6 7.5 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 9.3 15.2 12.3 121.8 71.1 62.6 3.6 7.4 12.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 8.6 4.4 5.7 49.0 44.1 37.9 2.4 5.8 10.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 18.2 24.3 13.9 112.8 67.6 56.4 7.1 13.7 22.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 9.2 15.7 11.8 130.2 72.9 62.2 3.3 7.1 12.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------