***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.11.2019.-17.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 4.6 11.0 11.2 93.8 61.9 45.9 4.1 7.6 12.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 4.1 11.6 10.4 92.0 61.8 47.3 3.9 7.7 13.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 14.1 15.8 11.3 96.0 62.7 48.0 5.1 10.2 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 6.5 17.6 14.1 106.1 66.4 50.1 6.1 10.9 17.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 6.5 15.3 11.0 91.3 61.1 45.4 6.0 10.9 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 5.9 13.9 10.9 87.8 59.3 43.9 5.4 10.3 17.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 9.9 10.9 10.2 90.6 61.2 47.1 4.2 7.7 12.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 8.3 17.9 11.6 86.3 59.0 45.9 7.9 13.7 21.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 5.8 13.4 10.7 88.3 60.0 45.0 5.4 9.9 16.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 6.5 15.5 11.4 88.6 59.8 45.9 5.7 11.1 18.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 6.5 15.4 10.8 87.4 59.6 45.4 6.0 11.2 18.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 15.5 15.5 11.1 87.2 59.3 46.7 5.4 11.0 19.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 5.9 14.2 11.1 85.4 58.9 46.3 5.4 10.5 17.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 7.6 16.8 12.4 87.0 59.1 46.0 7.0 12.7 20.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 12.1 17.1 15.6 113.5 69.2 51.2 3.9 8.5 15.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 6.0 13.8 10.6 84.7 58.4 44.7 5.7 10.7 17.4 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 5.0 12.4 11.2 102.1 65.1 49.8 4.7 8.2 12.7 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 6.6 14.0 11.2 83.5 57.3 43.7 6.0 11.0 18.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 56 44 0 100 5.5 14.1 10.5 90.7 61.1 46.9 5.2 9.9 16.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 17.0 18.3 16.0 92.6 60.9 50.8 7.1 13.1 21.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 54 46 0 100 5.8 14.6 10.9 93.7 61.8 46.3 5.5 10.1 16.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 5.1 13.8 11.1 96.2 63.5 49.5 4.6 8.9 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 5.4 13.0 10.6 88.9 60.1 45.9 5.3 9.7 15.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 13.3 13.0 11.3 87.5 59.0 44.7 4.7 9.5 16.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 5.2 12.3 12.4 96.3 62.7 46.8 4.7 8.5 13.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 57 43 0 100 5.0 13.2 12.1 86.0 58.9 45.8 4.7 9.6 16.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 5.0 12.2 11.7 93.2 61.8 46.2 4.5 8.4 13.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 5.1 15.5 13.1 100.1 64.7 48.3 4.4 9.1 16.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 20.6 20.1 12.5 86.0 58.2 46.2 9.0 15.9 25.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 11.1 11.9 10.6 90.9 61.4 47.2 3.9 7.9 13.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------