***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.11.2019.-24.11.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 4.2 8.6 9.8 78.7 55.5 44.8 3.9 7.2 12.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 3.1 10.1 10.9 99.4 63.8 49.9 2.6 5.9 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 9.9 8.9 9.7 80.2 56.0 45.9 3.7 7.2 12.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 13.5 12.4 11.8 75.9 55.6 46.8 5.4 10.3 17.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 10.7 8.3 10.0 68.1 51.8 43.6 3.9 7.9 13.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 14.6 13.7 10.6 75.5 55.8 45.7 6.3 11.4 18.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 8.6 10.0 10.7 98.0 63.6 49.9 2.9 6.1 10.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 20.6 15.8 10.1 66.7 50.4 42.4 8.2 15.5 26.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 10.7 7.7 9.9 66.8 50.6 43.0 3.6 7.6 13.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 11.2 8.2 10.2 67.0 50.4 43.0 3.7 8.0 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 13.2 10.4 9.6 68.0 51.9 43.3 5.0 9.8 16.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 13.5 10.7 9.7 69.4 52.5 43.5 4.5 9.7 17.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 15.0 14.3 11.0 78.1 56.6 46.5 5.9 11.4 19.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 15.7 14.5 11.7 79.9 56.3 47.6 6.0 11.8 19.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 14.7 15.7 13.8 85.6 60.5 49.7 4.6 10.3 19.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 12.7 11.4 10.4 73.7 54.9 45.2 5.3 9.9 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 4.1 11.8 11.0 106.2 66.0 50.2 3.7 7.1 11.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 13.5 10.9 10.9 71.4 52.5 45.3 4.8 10.0 17.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.3 11.3 10.6 95.2 62.2 49.2 3.9 7.6 12.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 15.1 12.1 13.4 72.4 52.7 45.4 4.9 11.0 20.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 10.0 8.0 9.7 71.6 51.9 43.3 3.8 7.4 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 4.7 13.2 11.5 104.5 65.5 50.0 4.5 8.2 13.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 9.5 9.6 10.3 87.3 59.4 48.5 3.6 7.0 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 12.2 10.5 10.6 75.9 54.6 46.4 4.0 8.7 15.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 9.2 8.3 11.0 77.9 55.9 46.5 3.6 6.9 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 15.8 14.4 11.3 78.1 56.7 45.6 5.6 11.4 19.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 4.0 8.4 10.5 80.5 56.6 46.0 3.5 6.7 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 12.3 11.7 11.7 77.4 56.8 47.3 4.8 9.4 15.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 20.3 17.1 11.5 72.4 52.5 45.7 8.1 15.6 26.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 3.8 9.7 10.5 91.7 60.9 48.4 3.3 6.6 11.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------