***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 31.10.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 25.11.2019.-01.12.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 7.9 11.7 13.2 115.5 68.8 58.8 3.2 6.2 10.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 7.4 10.3 12.1 114.3 68.5 58.2 2.9 5.7 9.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 9.4 12.9 13.0 111.7 67.5 56.9 3.6 7.1 12.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 11.9 17.2 15.6 121.0 70.4 58.3 5.9 10.0 15.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 9.7 13.4 14.6 113.2 68.1 57.0 4.0 7.6 12.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 8.5 11.0 13.1 103.6 65.4 55.1 3.8 6.9 11.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 7.4 10.0 11.8 113.3 68.2 57.7 3.2 5.8 9.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 12.9 16.4 15.7 113.7 68.0 57.0 7.1 11.0 15.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 7.9 10.8 14.9 110.0 67.2 56.4 3.1 6.1 10.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 10.9 14.4 15.8 112.7 67.7 56.8 5.1 8.8 13.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 9.6 13.4 14.5 113.9 68.3 56.8 3.8 7.4 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 11.6 15.9 14.2 112.5 67.7 56.6 5.1 9.3 15.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 10.7 14.0 14.2 106.8 66.0 56.3 5.1 8.8 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 11.5 16.1 16.3 112.8 67.8 57.1 4.6 9.1 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 13.8 23.0 16.8 131.7 73.3 58.3 5.2 10.5 18.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 9.8 12.9 14.0 109.4 66.9 56.5 4.1 7.7 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 7.6 10.7 12.1 115.8 69.1 58.8 3.3 6.0 9.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 12.5 16.4 16.3 112.1 67.3 57.0 5.9 10.2 15.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 8.2 11.6 12.3 113.1 67.9 57.6 2.9 6.1 10.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 13.8 18.1 19.5 112.1 67.2 57.6 6.3 11.1 17.5 29 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 8.7 11.8 13.8 108.9 66.9 56.7 3.6 6.9 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 9.0 13.0 12.7 117.1 69.3 59.1 3.1 6.5 11.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 7.6 11.0 12.8 110.7 67.1 56.8 2.7 5.8 10.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 11.9 16.0 15.2 112.5 67.6 56.5 5.5 9.6 15.3 28 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 7.9 11.9 14.7 115.3 68.8 59.3 3.0 6.2 10.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 7.8 10.6 14.8 111.0 67.7 57.7 3.7 6.4 10.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 8.9 12.7 13.7 114.8 68.6 58.9 3.5 7.0 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 11.9 17.0 14.9 120.6 70.3 57.1 5.7 9.7 15.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 18.2 24.5 17.1 112.9 67.4 57.5 8.1 14.6 23.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 7.7 10.7 12.3 114.5 68.5 58.2 3.0 5.8 9.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------